**RFK Jr. remains firmly in place as HHS Secretary, with traders assigning a 93.5% implied probability that he will not depart by October 31, 2026.** He continues to lead department operations and advance administration priorities, including recent announcements on organ procurement oversight, food policy initiatives under the Make America Healthy Again framework, and fiscal year 2026 budget presentations before Congress. Leadership adjustments earlier in the year, such as elevating Chris Klomp to oversee operations, have stabilized management without signaling an exit. Past rumors of a potential July departure were promptly denied by HHS, and earlier speculation around March has not materialized into any confirmed moves. Court rulings on vaccine advisory processes and external criticism over public health issues have prompted legal and messaging responses but no structural changes to his tenure. With midterm election dynamics and ongoing policy implementation extending into late 2026, no official statements, White House signals, or procedural developments indicate an imminent departure before the October 31 cutoff. Traders view the current stability and presidential alignment as the dominant factors supporting the strong consensus against an exit.