Elaine Pelino holds a strong lead in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary, reflecting recent polling trends and voter dynamics in a low-turnout contest scheduled for September 9. An August Embold Research survey showed her at 37% to Aaron Guckian’s 17% among likely primary voters, with 44% undecided, building on a similar June University of New Hampshire result. Guckian secured the state party endorsement in late June by a 72-44 delegate vote at the convention, granting him top ballot placement, yet this has not translated into polling momentum. Pelino, a first-time candidate positioning herself as a grassroots conservative, has benefited from name recognition and direct outreach in a primary where turnout often ranges from 15,000 to 30,000 voters. Other declared Republicans, including Robert Raimondo, withdrew or failed to qualify after the July signature deadline, leaving a head-to-head matchup. Early voting began August 20, narrowing the window for shifts before the primary.