The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom as federal debt subject to the limit stood near $39.2 trillion in early June 2026. Treasury extraordinary measures and routine borrowing capacity are projected to delay any binding constraint until mid-to-late 2027 under current fiscal trajectories. Congress has adjusted the debt ceiling more than 100 times since World War II, consistently resolving impasses through legislation before any default. This established pattern of bipartisan action to authorize borrowing for existing obligations underpins the 94.8% trader consensus against a default by the end of 2027. While a severe political standoff or unanticipated fiscal shock could still alter outcomes, no scheduled votes, reconciliation deadlines, or procedural hurdles currently signal elevated risk within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15,053 Wol.
$15,053 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,053 Wol.
$15,053 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom as federal debt subject to the limit stood near $39.2 trillion in early June 2026. Treasury extraordinary measures and routine borrowing capacity are projected to delay any binding constraint until mid-to-late 2027 under current fiscal trajectories. Congress has adjusted the debt ceiling more than 100 times since World War II, consistently resolving impasses through legislation before any default. This established pattern of bipartisan action to authorize borrowing for existing obligations underpins the 94.8% trader consensus against a default by the end of 2027. While a severe political standoff or unanticipated fiscal shock could still alter outcomes, no scheduled votes, reconciliation deadlines, or procedural hurdles currently signal elevated risk within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$15,053Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom as federal debt subject to the limit stood near $39.2 trillion in early June 2026. Treasury extraordinary measures and routine borrowing capacity are projected to delay any binding constraint until mid-to-late 2027 under current fiscal trajectories. Congress has adjusted the debt ceiling more than 100 times since World War II, consistently resolving impasses through legislation before any default. This established pattern of bipartisan action to authorize borrowing for existing obligations underpins the 94.8% trader consensus against a default by the end of 2027. While a severe political standoff or unanticipated fiscal shock could still alter outcomes, no scheduled votes, reconciliation deadlines, or procedural hurdles currently signal elevated risk within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Wolumen
$15,053Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom as federal debt subject to the limit stood near $39.2 trillion in early June 2026. Treasury extraordinary measures and routine borrowing capacity are projected to delay any binding constraint until mid-to-late 2027 under current fiscal trajectories. Congress has adjusted the debt ceiling more than 100 times since World War II, consistently resolving impasses through legislation before any default. This established pattern of bipartisan action to authorize borrowing for existing obligations underpins the 94.8% trader consensus against a default by the end of 2027. While a severe political standoff or unanticipated fiscal shock could still alter outcomes, no scheduled votes, reconciliation deadlines, or procedural hurdles currently signal elevated risk within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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