Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027, anchored by the July 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing substantial runway amid projected debt growth to around $40 trillion by late 2026 per CBO estimates. Congress has raised or suspended the debt limit over 100 times historically, resolving past brinkmanship like 2023 without default, bolstered by Treasury extraordinary measures that extend timelines by months during impasses. Bipartisan incentives remain strong to avert economic catastrophe, higher interest costs, and credit downgrades. Realistic shifts could stem from severe 2027 deadlock around the projected mid-year X-date, prolonged government shutdown, or fiscal shocks like recession amplifying deficits.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$14,748 Wol.
$14,748 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,748 Wol.
$14,748 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027, anchored by the July 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing substantial runway amid projected debt growth to around $40 trillion by late 2026 per CBO estimates. Congress has raised or suspended the debt limit over 100 times historically, resolving past brinkmanship like 2023 without default, bolstered by Treasury extraordinary measures that extend timelines by months during impasses. Bipartisan incentives remain strong to avert economic catastrophe, higher interest costs, and credit downgrades. Realistic shifts could stem from severe 2027 deadlock around the projected mid-year X-date, prolonged government shutdown, or fiscal shocks like recession amplifying deficits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,748Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027, anchored by the July 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing substantial runway amid projected debt growth to around $40 trillion by late 2026 per CBO estimates. Congress has raised or suspended the debt limit over 100 times historically, resolving past brinkmanship like 2023 without default, bolstered by Treasury extraordinary measures that extend timelines by months during impasses. Bipartisan incentives remain strong to avert economic catastrophe, higher interest costs, and credit downgrades. Realistic shifts could stem from severe 2027 deadlock around the projected mid-year X-date, prolonged government shutdown, or fiscal shocks like recession amplifying deficits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Wolumen
$14,748Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 95.5% implied probability against a US debt default by 2027, anchored by the July 2025 debt ceiling increase to $41.1 trillion via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing substantial runway amid projected debt growth to around $40 trillion by late 2026 per CBO estimates. Congress has raised or suspended the debt limit over 100 times historically, resolving past brinkmanship like 2023 without default, bolstered by Treasury extraordinary measures that extend timelines by months during impasses. Bipartisan incentives remain strong to avert economic catastrophe, higher interest costs, and credit downgrades. Realistic shifts could stem from severe 2027 deadlock around the projected mid-year X-date, prolonged government shutdown, or fiscal shocks like recession amplifying deficits.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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