**Trader consensus at 96.6% against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 reflects the rapid de-escalation of early-year tensions and the absence of any military mobilization.** In January 2026, President Trump’s statements on annexation and tariffs prompted Denmark and several NATO allies to reinforce Greenland under Operation Arctic Endurance, while U.S. officials explored options that were ultimately rejected. By late January, Trump explicitly ruled out military force at the Davos forum and shifted to negotiations on enhanced U.S. access, security cooperation, and investment oversight rather than sovereignty transfer. Ongoing trilateral talks through mid-2026 have focused on Arctic defense arrangements and countering external influence without altering territorial status. With four months remaining in the year and no invasion preparations underway, the implied probability aligns with the diplomatic track and institutional constraints of NATO membership. Late developments such as a sudden collapse in negotiations or unforeseen geopolitical shocks could theoretically reopen discussion, though current trajectories show no such trajectory.