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icon for O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?
Tecnologia·Benchmarks De IA

O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?

icon for O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?
Tecnologia·Benchmarks De IA

O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?

Ended: jan 1, 2027

Ended: jan 1, 2027

Sim

>99% chance
Polymarket

$134,219 Vol.

Sim

>99% chance
Polymarket

$134,219 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress on FrontierMath, a benchmark of expert-level mathematics problems, drives the 99.7% market-implied probability that an AI model reaches ≥90% before 2027. As of early September 2026, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol leads the legacy version at 89% and FrontierMath v2 Tier 4 at 83%, following consistent gains from sub-2% at launch through GPT-5.5 releases and a June 2026 v2 update that corrected errors in 42% of problems and lifted scores across the board. Large language models continue to close the gap through scaled reasoning, tool use, and iterative releases, with trader consensus reflecting the historical pattern of math benchmarks saturating quickly once frontier systems exceed 50-70%. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether a new harder tier or version could reset the threshold before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$134,219
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress on FrontierMath, a benchmark of expert-level mathematics problems, drives the 99.7% market-implied probability that an AI model reaches ≥90% before 2027. As of early September 2026, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol leads the legacy version at 89% and FrontierMath v2 Tier 4 at 83%, following consistent gains from sub-2% at launch through GPT-5.5 releases and a June 2026 v2 update that corrected errors in 42% of problems and lifted scores across the board. Large language models continue to close the gap through scaled reasoning, tool use, and iterative releases, with trader consensus reflecting the historical pattern of math benchmarks saturating quickly once frontier systems exceed 50-70%. Remaining uncertainty centers on whether a new harder tier or version could reset the threshold before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$134,219
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Resultado proposto: Sim

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Sim

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Frequently Asked Questions

"O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Modelo de IA atinge pontuação ≥ 90% no Benchmark FrontierMath antes de 2027?" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?" has generated $134.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?" is "Modelo de IA atinge pontuação ≥ 90% no Benchmark FrontierMath antes de 2027?" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O modelo de IA pontua ≥ 90% no FrontierMath Benchmark antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.