Skip to main content
icon for AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana
Política·Primárias

AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana

icon for AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana
Política·Primárias

AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana

Mark Lamb 61.2%

Jay Feely 6.0%

Travis Grantham 2.7%

Polymarket

$50,159 Vol.

Mark Lamb 61.2%

Jay Feely 6.0%

Travis Grantham 2.7%

Polymarket

$50,159 Vol.

Mark Lamb

$5,523 Vol.

61%

Jay Feely

$42,965 Vol.

6%

Travis Grantham

$1,671 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 5th Congressional District Republican primary as the frontrunner among a narrowed field, driven by his strong name recognition from a prior U.S. Senate bid, law enforcement background as former Pinal County sheriff, and early polling advantages after entering the race in October 2025 to succeed Andy Biggs. Recent developments, including a cease-and-desist notice to remaining opponent Daniel Keenan and the July 21 primary date now weeks away, have reinforced Lamb's position in this solidly Republican district where the primary determines the nominee. Trader consensus at 61.6% for Lamb, with Jay Feely and Travis Grantham at low single digits following their withdrawals, reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics and limited competitive momentum for challengers.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$50,159
Data de Término
4 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mark Lamb holds a commanding lead in the Arizona 5th Congressional District Republican primary as the frontrunner among a narrowed field, driven by his strong name recognition from a prior U.S. Senate bid, law enforcement background as former Pinal County sheriff, and early polling advantages after entering the race in October 2025 to succeed Andy Biggs. Recent developments, including a cease-and-desist notice to remaining opponent Daniel Keenan and the July 21 primary date now weeks away, have reinforced Lamb's position in this solidly Republican district where the primary determines the nominee. Trader consensus at 61.6% for Lamb, with Jay Feely and Travis Grantham at low single digits following their withdrawals, reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics and limited competitive momentum for challengers.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$50,159
Data de Término
4 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Lamb" at 61%, followed by "Jay Feely" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana" has generated $50.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Mark Lamb" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jay Feely" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-05 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.