Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent seeking re-election, holds a modest lead in the Bahia governor market at 58% implied probability, ahead of ACM Neto (UNIÃO) at 41%, with other names near zero. The contest is a 2022 rematch, scheduled for first round on 4 October 2026 and possible runoff on 25 October. Recent Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas surveys show a tight or slightly ACM-favored first-round race that narrows or flips in second-round scenarios, reflecting Rodrigues’s stable approval ratings near 56-61% on education and infrastructure alongside national partisan realignments after UNIÃO’s break with the Lula administration. Traders appear to price in incumbent advantages and late-cycle momentum for the PT candidate despite varying poll margins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJerônimo Rodrigues 58%
ACM Neto 41%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$99,981 Vol.
$99,981 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
58%
ACM Neto
41%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 58%
ACM Neto 41%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$99,981 Vol.
$99,981 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$32,670 Vol.
58%
ACM Neto
$32,873 Vol.
41%
Kleber Rosa
$10,037 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$8,143 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent seeking re-election, holds a modest lead in the Bahia governor market at 58% implied probability, ahead of ACM Neto (UNIÃO) at 41%, with other names near zero. The contest is a 2022 rematch, scheduled for first round on 4 October 2026 and possible runoff on 25 October. Recent Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas surveys show a tight or slightly ACM-favored first-round race that narrows or flips in second-round scenarios, reflecting Rodrigues’s stable approval ratings near 56-61% on education and infrastructure alongside national partisan realignments after UNIÃO’s break with the Lula administration. Traders appear to price in incumbent advantages and late-cycle momentum for the PT candidate despite varying poll margins.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$99,981Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent seeking re-election, holds a modest lead in the Bahia governor market at 58% implied probability, ahead of ACM Neto (UNIÃO) at 41%, with other names near zero. The contest is a 2022 rematch, scheduled for first round on 4 October 2026 and possible runoff on 25 October. Recent Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas surveys show a tight or slightly ACM-favored first-round race that narrows or flips in second-round scenarios, reflecting Rodrigues’s stable approval ratings near 56-61% on education and infrastructure alongside national partisan realignments after UNIÃO’s break with the Lula administration. Traders appear to price in incumbent advantages and late-cycle momentum for the PT candidate despite varying poll margins.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$99,981Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), the incumbent seeking re-election, holds a modest lead in the Bahia governor market at 58% implied probability, ahead of ACM Neto (UNIÃO) at 41%, with other names near zero. The contest is a 2022 rematch, scheduled for first round on 4 October 2026 and possible runoff on 25 October. Recent Genial/Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas surveys show a tight or slightly ACM-favored first-round race that narrows or flips in second-round scenarios, reflecting Rodrigues’s stable approval ratings near 56-61% on education and infrastructure alongside national partisan realignments after UNIÃO’s break with the Lula administration. Traders appear to price in incumbent advantages and late-cycle momentum for the PT candidate despite varying poll margins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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