Traders assign a 93% implied probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Combo parlay because the three required conditions for 2026—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirming another child, and achieving nine or more Starship launches that reach space—face steep, independent barriers. Musk’s fortune sits near $900–930 billion after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and Tesla share restrictions, while Starship has completed only a handful of successful flights in 2026 with Flight 14 still pending orbital debut. No new child has been confirmed this year. A sudden Tesla or SpaceX rally, accelerated Starship cadence after regulatory clearances, or late-year family announcement could theoretically shift outcomes, yet the combined probability remains low given current technical and market realities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCombo Elon Bull Run
Combo Elon Bull Run
Sim
6% chance
$12,448 Vol.
$12,448 Vol.
1 jan 2027
Sim
6% chance
$12,448 Vol.
$12,448 Vol.
1 jan 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign a 93% implied probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Combo parlay because the three required conditions for 2026—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirming another child, and achieving nine or more Starship launches that reach space—face steep, independent barriers. Musk’s fortune sits near $900–930 billion after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and Tesla share restrictions, while Starship has completed only a handful of successful flights in 2026 with Flight 14 still pending orbital debut. No new child has been confirmed this year. A sudden Tesla or SpaceX rally, accelerated Starship cadence after regulatory clearances, or late-year family announcement could theoretically shift outcomes, yet the combined probability remains low given current technical and market realities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$12,448Data de Término
2 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign a 93% implied probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Combo parlay because the three required conditions for 2026—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirming another child, and achieving nine or more Starship launches that reach space—face steep, independent barriers. Musk’s fortune sits near $900–930 billion after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and Tesla share restrictions, while Starship has completed only a handful of successful flights in 2026 with Flight 14 still pending orbital debut. No new child has been confirmed this year. A sudden Tesla or SpaceX rally, accelerated Starship cadence after regulatory clearances, or late-year family announcement could theoretically shift outcomes, yet the combined probability remains low given current technical and market realities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$12,448Data de Término
2 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93% implied probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Combo parlay because the three required conditions for 2026—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirming another child, and achieving nine or more Starship launches that reach space—face steep, independent barriers. Musk’s fortune sits near $900–930 billion after SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and Tesla share restrictions, while Starship has completed only a handful of successful flights in 2026 with Flight 14 still pending orbital debut. No new child has been confirmed this year. A sudden Tesla or SpaceX rally, accelerated Starship cadence after regulatory clearances, or late-year family announcement could theoretically shift outcomes, yet the combined probability remains low given current technical and market realities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions