Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% reflecting the European Union's entrenched institutional stability, with no member state invoking Article 50 withdrawal procedures or scheduling exit referendums ahead of 2027. Recent polls, including a December 2025 survey showing only 25% Polish support for Polexit amid 66% opposition, and fact-checks confirming no imminent departures from France or elsewhere, underscore minimal public momentum for dissolution despite right-wing electoral gains in France, Germany, and Italy as of April 2026. Economic interdependence, shared eurozone debt obligations, and post-Brexit caution further solidify this positioning. Realistic shifts could arise from a sovereign debt crisis in Italy or France, Ukraine war escalation fracturing alliances, or a populist coalition securing absolute majorities to force snap referendums, though timelines constrain feasibility before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA UE dissolve-se antes de 2027?
A UE dissolve-se antes de 2027?
Sim
$162,484 Vol.
$162,484 Vol.
Sim
$162,484 Vol.
$162,484 Vol.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% reflecting the European Union's entrenched institutional stability, with no member state invoking Article 50 withdrawal procedures or scheduling exit referendums ahead of 2027. Recent polls, including a December 2025 survey showing only 25% Polish support for Polexit amid 66% opposition, and fact-checks confirming no imminent departures from France or elsewhere, underscore minimal public momentum for dissolution despite right-wing electoral gains in France, Germany, and Italy as of April 2026. Economic interdependence, shared eurozone debt obligations, and post-Brexit caution further solidify this positioning. Realistic shifts could arise from a sovereign debt crisis in Italy or France, Ukraine war escalation fracturing alliances, or a populist coalition securing absolute majorities to force snap referendums, though timelines constrain feasibility before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions