**Incumbent Republican Speaker Mike Johnson faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district jungle primary on November 3, 2026.** The district has long favored Republicans, with Johnson securing 85.8% in the prior cycle. Multiple Republican and Democratic candidates qualified by the August filing deadline, but none appear positioned to fragment the GOP vote enough to prevent a majority. Historical patterns in similar solidly Republican Louisiana districts show strong incumbents routinely clearing 50% in the first round under the majority-vote system. Traders assign 94% implied probability to an outright win, reflecting the absence of competitive challengers or late developments that would force a December runoff.