**Incumbent Democrat Troy Carter faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District jungle primary on November 3, 2026.** The race uses the state’s majority-vote system after the Supreme Court’s ruling in *Louisiana v. Callais* struck down the prior congressional map, shifting House contests to the November primary (with a potential December 12 runoff) for this cycle only. Carter, who captured roughly 60% in 2024 and 77% in 2022 against weaker fields, competes against fellow Democrat Renada Collins plus minor Republican, Libertarian, and independent candidates. The district’s strong Democratic lean—rated Solid/Safe Democratic by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others—combined with Carter’s incumbency and fundraising edge makes a first-round majority (>50%) the most probable outcome. Traders price the “Yes” (outright winner) side at 71.9% to reflect these structural advantages and the absence of credible challengers capable of splitting the vote enough to force a runoff. No recent polling or late developments have altered this consensus.