Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, representing New Jersey's 4th district since 1981, secured the GOP nomination without opposition in the June 2026 primary, while Democrat Rachel Peace emerged from a contested primary to challenge him. The district's strong Republican lean, concentrated in Monmouth and Ocean counties with favorable voter registration and Smith's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Limited Democratic fundraising visibility and the absence of recent polling showing competitive dynamics further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election. A national partisan wave shifting turnout dramatically or an unforeseen candidate withdrawal could narrow the gap, though structural district factors make such shifts improbable based on historical patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$5,448 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$3,991 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, representing New Jersey's 4th district since 1981, secured the GOP nomination without opposition in the June 2026 primary, while Democrat Rachel Peace emerged from a contested primary to challenge him. The district's strong Republican lean, concentrated in Monmouth and Ocean counties with favorable voter registration and Smith's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Limited Democratic fundraising visibility and the absence of recent polling showing competitive dynamics further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election. A national partisan wave shifting turnout dramatically or an unforeseen candidate withdrawal could narrow the gap, though structural district factors make such shifts improbable based on historical patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$9,439Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, representing New Jersey's 4th district since 1981, secured the GOP nomination without opposition in the June 2026 primary, while Democrat Rachel Peace emerged from a contested primary to challenge him. The district's strong Republican lean, concentrated in Monmouth and Ocean counties with favorable voter registration and Smith's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Limited Democratic fundraising visibility and the absence of recent polling showing competitive dynamics further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election. A national partisan wave shifting turnout dramatically or an unforeseen candidate withdrawal could narrow the gap, though structural district factors make such shifts improbable based on historical patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,439Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith, representing New Jersey's 4th district since 1981, secured the GOP nomination without opposition in the June 2026 primary, while Democrat Rachel Peace emerged from a contested primary to challenge him. The district's strong Republican lean, concentrated in Monmouth and Ocean counties with favorable voter registration and Smith's consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. Limited Democratic fundraising visibility and the absence of recent polling showing competitive dynamics further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election. A national partisan wave shifting turnout dramatically or an unforeseen candidate withdrawal could narrow the gap, though structural district factors make such shifts improbable based on historical patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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