Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting trader consensus that prices Democratic retention at 83 percent. Gillen flipped the Nassau County seat in 2024 and secured her party’s nomination in the June 23 primary without significant opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll emerged from her primary to face the incumbent. The district’s South Shore demographics and recent electoral history favor the sitting member, though Republicans retain a path through strong turnout in traditionally competitive Long Island precincts. No major late-breaking developments have altered the race since the primaries concluded, leaving the outcome dependent on broader midterm dynamics and candidate fundraising in the final months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara de NY-04
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara de NY-04
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
83%
Partido Republicano
15%
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$791 Vol.
83%
Partido Republicano
$343 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting trader consensus that prices Democratic retention at 83 percent. Gillen flipped the Nassau County seat in 2024 and secured her party’s nomination in the June 23 primary without significant opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll emerged from her primary to face the incumbent. The district’s South Shore demographics and recent electoral history favor the sitting member, though Republicans retain a path through strong turnout in traditionally competitive Long Island precincts. No major late-breaking developments have altered the race since the primaries concluded, leaving the outcome dependent on broader midterm dynamics and candidate fundraising in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,134Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting trader consensus that prices Democratic retention at 83 percent. Gillen flipped the Nassau County seat in 2024 and secured her party’s nomination in the June 23 primary without significant opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll emerged from her primary to face the incumbent. The district’s South Shore demographics and recent electoral history favor the sitting member, though Republicans retain a path through strong turnout in traditionally competitive Long Island precincts. No major late-breaking developments have altered the race since the primaries concluded, leaving the outcome dependent on broader midterm dynamics and candidate fundraising in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,134Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting trader consensus that prices Democratic retention at 83 percent. Gillen flipped the Nassau County seat in 2024 and secured her party’s nomination in the June 23 primary without significant opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll emerged from her primary to face the incumbent. The district’s South Shore demographics and recent electoral history favor the sitting member, though Republicans retain a path through strong turnout in traditionally competitive Long Island precincts. No major late-breaking developments have altered the race since the primaries concluded, leaving the outcome dependent on broader midterm dynamics and candidate fundraising in the final months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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