South Dakota's at-large congressional district remains a deeply Republican stronghold, where the party has held the seat continuously since 2008 and last won the general election with 72 percent of the vote in 2024. Incumbent Dusty Johnson’s decision to run for governor created an open seat, but Republican primary voters selected Attorney General Marty Jackley with roughly 80 percent support on June 2, 2026, after he secured former President Trump’s endorsement and defeated a lesser-known challenger. Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed, while an independent candidate also qualified. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the market’s 93.5 percent implied probability for the GOP nominee. A Republican loss would require an unprecedented swing in this low-turnout, rural state or a major late development affecting Jackley’s candidacy.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Câmara SD-AL
Vencedor da eleição da Câmara SD-AL
$16,933 Vol.
$16,933 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Democrata
5%
$16,933 Vol.
$16,933 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$9,474 Vol.
94%
Partido Democrata
$7,459 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district remains a deeply Republican stronghold, where the party has held the seat continuously since 2008 and last won the general election with 72 percent of the vote in 2024. Incumbent Dusty Johnson’s decision to run for governor created an open seat, but Republican primary voters selected Attorney General Marty Jackley with roughly 80 percent support on June 2, 2026, after he secured former President Trump’s endorsement and defeated a lesser-known challenger. Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed, while an independent candidate also qualified. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the market’s 93.5 percent implied probability for the GOP nominee. A Republican loss would require an unprecedented swing in this low-turnout, rural state or a major late development affecting Jackley’s candidacy.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$16,933Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district remains a deeply Republican stronghold, where the party has held the seat continuously since 2008 and last won the general election with 72 percent of the vote in 2024. Incumbent Dusty Johnson’s decision to run for governor created an open seat, but Republican primary voters selected Attorney General Marty Jackley with roughly 80 percent support on June 2, 2026, after he secured former President Trump’s endorsement and defeated a lesser-known challenger. Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed, while an independent candidate also qualified. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the market’s 93.5 percent implied probability for the GOP nominee. A Republican loss would require an unprecedented swing in this low-turnout, rural state or a major late development affecting Jackley’s candidacy.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,933Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large congressional district remains a deeply Republican stronghold, where the party has held the seat continuously since 2008 and last won the general election with 72 percent of the vote in 2024. Incumbent Dusty Johnson’s decision to run for governor created an open seat, but Republican primary voters selected Attorney General Marty Jackley with roughly 80 percent support on June 2, 2026, after he secured former President Trump’s endorsement and defeated a lesser-known challenger. Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed, while an independent candidate also qualified. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the market’s 93.5 percent implied probability for the GOP nominee. A Republican loss would require an unprecedented swing in this low-turnout, rural state or a major late development affecting Jackley’s candidacy.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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