Marty Jackley's commanding position in the South Dakota at-large House race stems from the state's consistent Republican tilt, with the party holding the seat without interruption since 2008 and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid Republican. As the open-seat nominee following Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid, Jackley secured 79% in the June primary against limited opposition, leveraging his record as attorney general and prior U.S. attorney experience. Gronli, the Democratic nominee who advanced unopposed, faces structural challenges in a district with an R+15 partisan lean. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Jackley reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as turnout shifts, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could narrow the margin in a low-probability upset scenario.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Câmara SD-AL
Vencedor da eleição da Câmara SD-AL
$32,071 Vol.
$32,071 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Marty Jackley (R)
95%
Nikki Gronli (D)
3%
$32,071 Vol.
$32,071 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Marty Jackley (R)
$24,383 Vol.
95%
Nikki Gronli (D)
$7,688 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marty Jackley's commanding position in the South Dakota at-large House race stems from the state's consistent Republican tilt, with the party holding the seat without interruption since 2008 and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid Republican. As the open-seat nominee following Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid, Jackley secured 79% in the June primary against limited opposition, leveraging his record as attorney general and prior U.S. attorney experience. Gronli, the Democratic nominee who advanced unopposed, faces structural challenges in a district with an R+15 partisan lean. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Jackley reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as turnout shifts, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could narrow the margin in a low-probability upset scenario.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,071Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marty Jackley's commanding position in the South Dakota at-large House race stems from the state's consistent Republican tilt, with the party holding the seat without interruption since 2008 and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid Republican. As the open-seat nominee following Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid, Jackley secured 79% in the June primary against limited opposition, leveraging his record as attorney general and prior U.S. attorney experience. Gronli, the Democratic nominee who advanced unopposed, faces structural challenges in a district with an R+15 partisan lean. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Jackley reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as turnout shifts, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could narrow the margin in a low-probability upset scenario.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,071Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Marty Jackley's commanding position in the South Dakota at-large House race stems from the state's consistent Republican tilt, with the party holding the seat without interruption since 2008 and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid Republican. As the open-seat nominee following Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid, Jackley secured 79% in the June primary against limited opposition, leveraging his record as attorney general and prior U.S. attorney experience. Gronli, the Democratic nominee who advanced unopposed, faces structural challenges in a district with an R+15 partisan lean. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Jackley reflects these fundamentals, though late developments such as turnout shifts, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could narrow the margin in a low-probability upset scenario.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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