The Pennsylvania 4th congressional district's strong Democratic partisan lean, anchored in Philadelphia suburbs including much of Montgomery County, underpins the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Madeleine Dean, serving since 2019 and unopposed in the May 2026 primary, benefits from established name recognition, committee roles, and consistent past margins in this safe-D seat. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, also unopposed in her primary, faces structural headwinds with limited reported fundraising or polling momentum as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus prices in these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Low-probability shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, major national Republican surges altering turnout, or unexpected primary disruptions, though none appear imminent based on current filings and district history.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa PA-04
Vencedor da eleição da casa PA-04
$19,235 Vol.
$19,235 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,235 Vol.
$19,235 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$6,741 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,495 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Pennsylvania 4th congressional district's strong Democratic partisan lean, anchored in Philadelphia suburbs including much of Montgomery County, underpins the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Madeleine Dean, serving since 2019 and unopposed in the May 2026 primary, benefits from established name recognition, committee roles, and consistent past margins in this safe-D seat. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, also unopposed in her primary, faces structural headwinds with limited reported fundraising or polling momentum as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus prices in these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Low-probability shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, major national Republican surges altering turnout, or unexpected primary disruptions, though none appear imminent based on current filings and district history.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$19,235Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Pennsylvania 4th congressional district's strong Democratic partisan lean, anchored in Philadelphia suburbs including much of Montgomery County, underpins the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Madeleine Dean, serving since 2019 and unopposed in the May 2026 primary, benefits from established name recognition, committee roles, and consistent past margins in this safe-D seat. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, also unopposed in her primary, faces structural headwinds with limited reported fundraising or polling momentum as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus prices in these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Low-probability shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, major national Republican surges altering turnout, or unexpected primary disruptions, though none appear imminent based on current filings and district history.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,235Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Pennsylvania 4th congressional district's strong Democratic partisan lean, anchored in Philadelphia suburbs including much of Montgomery County, underpins the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Madeleine Dean, serving since 2019 and unopposed in the May 2026 primary, benefits from established name recognition, committee roles, and consistent past margins in this safe-D seat. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, also unopposed in her primary, faces structural headwinds with limited reported fundraising or polling momentum as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus prices in these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Low-probability shifts could arise from late-breaking scandals, major national Republican surges altering turnout, or unexpected primary disruptions, though none appear imminent based on current filings and district history.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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