Arizona's 7th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent race ratings of Solid Democratic from major forecasters. Incumbent Adelita Grijalva, who won the 2025 special election to succeed her late father Raúl Grijalva, faces limited opposition in the July 21 Democratic primary and enters the November 2026 general as the presumptive nominee. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 92.5% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with the district's voting patterns and historical margins. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts from fundraising imbalances, turnout dynamics in the majority-Hispanic border district, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawals or major scandals in the final months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$10,301 Vol.
$10,301 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$10,301 Vol.
$10,301 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$3,996 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$6,305 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 7th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent race ratings of Solid Democratic from major forecasters. Incumbent Adelita Grijalva, who won the 2025 special election to succeed her late father Raúl Grijalva, faces limited opposition in the July 21 Democratic primary and enters the November 2026 general as the presumptive nominee. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 92.5% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with the district's voting patterns and historical margins. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts from fundraising imbalances, turnout dynamics in the majority-Hispanic border district, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawals or major scandals in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$10,301Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 7th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent race ratings of Solid Democratic from major forecasters. Incumbent Adelita Grijalva, who won the 2025 special election to succeed her late father Raúl Grijalva, faces limited opposition in the July 21 Democratic primary and enters the November 2026 general as the presumptive nominee. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 92.5% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with the district's voting patterns and historical margins. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts from fundraising imbalances, turnout dynamics in the majority-Hispanic border district, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawals or major scandals in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,301Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 7th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent race ratings of Solid Democratic from major forecasters. Incumbent Adelita Grijalva, who won the 2025 special election to succeed her late father Raúl Grijalva, faces limited opposition in the July 21 Democratic primary and enters the November 2026 general as the presumptive nominee. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic Party a 92.5% implied probability of holding the seat, consistent with the district's voting patterns and historical margins. A Republican victory would require substantial shifts from fundraising imbalances, turnout dynamics in the majority-Hispanic border district, or unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawals or major scandals in the final months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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