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Eleições·Primária Republicana

FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana

Market icon
Eleições·Primária Republicana

FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana

Randy Fine 56%

Dan Bilzerian 31%

Charles Gambaro 6.1%

Ernest Audino 1.0%

Polymarket

$18,389 Vol.

Randy Fine 56%

Dan Bilzerian 31%

Charles Gambaro 6.1%

Ernest Audino 1.0%

Polymarket

$18,389 Vol.

Randy Fine

$1,492 Vol.

56%

Dan Bilzerian

$3,403 Vol.

31%

Charles Gambaro

$951 Vol.

6%

Ernest Audino

$9,607 Vol.

1%

Alexandra Van Cleef

$925 Vol.

1%

Aaron Baker

$1,127 Vol.

1%

Joshua Vasquez

$884 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Randy Fine leads trader consensus at 56% implied probability in the FL-06 Republican primary due to his strong incumbency advantage, prior Trump endorsement, and proven record from winning the 2025 special election to succeed Mike Waltz amid competitive turnout. Challenger Dan Bilzerian's recent filing last week—slamming Fine's pro-Israel stance as "treason" and criticizing U.S. involvement in Iran—has boosted him to 30%, fueled by his massive social media following and outsider appeal despite controversies over past business scandals and inflammatory rhetoric. Minor candidates like Charles Gambaro trail at 6%, with no recent polling; the August 18 primary remains fluid pending endorsements, fundraising, and voter turnout in this central Florida battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,389
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Randy Fine leads trader consensus at 56% implied probability in the FL-06 Republican primary due to his strong incumbency advantage, prior Trump endorsement, and proven record from winning the 2025 special election to succeed Mike Waltz amid competitive turnout. Challenger Dan Bilzerian's recent filing last week—slamming Fine's pro-Israel stance as "treason" and criticizing U.S. involvement in Iran—has boosted him to 30%, fueled by his massive social media following and outsider appeal despite controversies over past business scandals and inflammatory rhetoric. Minor candidates like Charles Gambaro trail at 6%, with no recent polling; the August 18 primary remains fluid pending endorsements, fundraising, and voter turnout in this central Florida battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,389
Data de Término
18 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Randy Fine" at 56%, followed by "Dan Bilzerian" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana" has generated $18.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Randy Fine" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Bilzerian" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-06 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.