Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the August 18, 2026 Florida Republican primary for the U.S. Senate special election as the appointed incumbent, benefiting from her prior role as state attorney general, Governor Ron DeSantis's selection to succeed Marco Rubio, and broad party establishment support. Minor candidates including Chris Gleason, Neelam Perry, Ernie Rivera, and others have filed but lack significant fundraising, endorsements, or polling visibility in a race with low primary competition. Trader consensus reflects Moody's structural advantages as the sitting senator heading into the vote. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health issue, or coordinated challenge from aligned groups could still shift outcomes before ballots close, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.