Recent ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate peak temperatures in Busan on August 18 likely near 30–31°C, driven by typical late-summer subtropical high pressure with moderate southerly flow and elevated humidity. Coastal sea breezes from the Korea Strait often cap daytime maxima by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling, while scattered showers or increased cloud cover can further suppress highs by 1–2°C through reduced insolation. Differentiating the tightly bunched 29–32°C outcomes hinges on precise timing of any weak frontal passages or convective activity, as clearer periods would favor the upper end and persistent marine layer influence the lower. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.