**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s August 16 maximum temperature centers on the narrow gap between 29 °C and 30 °C, reflecting model consensus around 30 °C amid typical mid-August subtropical conditions.** Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts indicate a warm, humid air mass with highs near 30 °C (86 °F), modulated by variable cloud cover and possible scattered showers that limit afternoon heating. Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, insolation, and urban heat-island effects can easily shift the observed high by 1 °C, explaining the near-even split in market-implied probabilities. Historical climatology shows mid-August maxima averaging 31–32 °C, but recent model runs have trended slightly cooler due to increased moisture and reduced sunshine. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance on cloud trends and any late-day sea-breeze reinforcement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 16 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio no dia 16 de agosto?
30°C 38%
29°C 36%
28°C 16%
31°C 6%
NOVO
$13,414 Vol.
NOVO
$13,414 Vol.
16 ago 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
16%
29°C
36%
30°C
38%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 38%
29°C 36%
28°C 16%
31°C 6%
NOVO
$13,414 Vol.
NOVO
$13,414 Vol.
16 ago 2026
24°C or below
$1,221 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$437 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$518 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,248 Vol.
5%
28°C
$1,004 Vol.
16%
29°C
$2,174 Vol.
36%
30°C
$2,648 Vol.
38%
31°C
$852 Vol.
6%
32°C
$1,661 Vol.
2%
33°C
$1,304 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$345 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s August 16 maximum temperature centers on the narrow gap between 29 °C and 30 °C, reflecting model consensus around 30 °C amid typical mid-August subtropical conditions.** Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts indicate a warm, humid air mass with highs near 30 °C (86 °F), modulated by variable cloud cover and possible scattered showers that limit afternoon heating. Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, insolation, and urban heat-island effects can easily shift the observed high by 1 °C, explaining the near-even split in market-implied probabilities. Historical climatology shows mid-August maxima averaging 31–32 °C, but recent model runs have trended slightly cooler due to increased moisture and reduced sunshine. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance on cloud trends and any late-day sea-breeze reinforcement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$13,414Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s August 16 maximum temperature centers on the narrow gap between 29 °C and 30 °C, reflecting model consensus around 30 °C amid typical mid-August subtropical conditions.** Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts indicate a warm, humid air mass with highs near 30 °C (86 °F), modulated by variable cloud cover and possible scattered showers that limit afternoon heating. Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, insolation, and urban heat-island effects can easily shift the observed high by 1 °C, explaining the near-even split in market-implied probabilities. Historical climatology shows mid-August maxima averaging 31–32 °C, but recent model runs have trended slightly cooler due to increased moisture and reduced sunshine. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance on cloud trends and any late-day sea-breeze reinforcement.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,414Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s August 16 maximum temperature centers on the narrow gap between 29 °C and 30 °C, reflecting model consensus around 30 °C amid typical mid-August subtropical conditions.** Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts indicate a warm, humid air mass with highs near 30 °C (86 °F), modulated by variable cloud cover and possible scattered showers that limit afternoon heating. Small differences in boundary-layer moisture, insolation, and urban heat-island effects can easily shift the observed high by 1 °C, explaining the near-even split in market-implied probabilities. Historical climatology shows mid-August maxima averaging 31–32 °C, but recent model runs have trended slightly cooler due to increased moisture and reduced sunshine. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance on cloud trends and any late-day sea-breeze reinforcement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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