Current forecasts from sources like the BBC and ensemble models show Madrid temperatures rising toward 36–38°C on August 17–18 under sunny conditions with light winds and a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and strong daytime heating. Market odds cluster tightly on 38°C (42%) and 39°C (48.5%) because small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and exact peak timing can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET guidance and limited model spread keep 40°C+ probabilities low at 13%, while historical August climatology (typical highs near 32–34°C) underscores the elevated but uncertain anomaly. Updated model runs and observations through August 17 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 18 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 18 de agosto?
38°C 46%
39°C 35%
40°C 12%
37°C 11%
NOVO
NOVO
18 ago 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
4%
37°C
11%
38°C
46%
39°C
35%
40°C
12%
41°C
3%
42°C
3%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 46%
39°C 35%
40°C 12%
37°C 11%
NOVO
NOVO
18 ago 2026
34°C or below
$18 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$18 Vol.
1%
36°C
$24 Vol.
4%
37°C
$49 Vol.
11%
38°C
$71 Vol.
46%
39°C
$59 Vol.
35%
40°C
$13 Vol.
12%
41°C
$10 Vol.
3%
42°C
$0 Vol.
3%
43°C
$18 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$113 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from sources like the BBC and ensemble models show Madrid temperatures rising toward 36–38°C on August 17–18 under sunny conditions with light winds and a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and strong daytime heating. Market odds cluster tightly on 38°C (42%) and 39°C (48.5%) because small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and exact peak timing can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET guidance and limited model spread keep 40°C+ probabilities low at 13%, while historical August climatology (typical highs near 32–34°C) underscores the elevated but uncertain anomaly. Updated model runs and observations through August 17 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$392Data de Término
18 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from sources like the BBC and ensemble models show Madrid temperatures rising toward 36–38°C on August 17–18 under sunny conditions with light winds and a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and strong daytime heating. Market odds cluster tightly on 38°C (42%) and 39°C (48.5%) because small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and exact peak timing can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET guidance and limited model spread keep 40°C+ probabilities low at 13%, while historical August climatology (typical highs near 32–34°C) underscores the elevated but uncertain anomaly. Updated model runs and observations through August 17 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$392Data de Término
18 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from sources like the BBC and ensemble models show Madrid temperatures rising toward 36–38°C on August 17–18 under sunny conditions with light winds and a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and strong daytime heating. Market odds cluster tightly on 38°C (42%) and 39°C (48.5%) because small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island effects, and exact peak timing can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET guidance and limited model spread keep 40°C+ probabilities low at 13%, while historical August climatology (typical highs near 32–34°C) underscores the elevated but uncertain anomaly. Updated model runs and observations through August 17 will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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