Forecast models from the National Weather Service and ensembles indicate Houston will experience sunny skies and light southerly winds on August 4, supporting afternoon highs near the seasonal average of 95°F under a persistent high-pressure ridge. Recent shifts in the European model guidance suggest a modest easing from earlier triple-digit potential, keeping the most likely range between 94–97°F as daytime heating peaks amid high dew points near 78°F. Minor differences in predicted cloud cover timing or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight spread between the leading 94–95°F and 96–97°F outcomes, with any unexpected convective development or stronger winds able to trim the maximum by a degree or two before official verification at Hobby Airport.