Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 18 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 18 de julho?
36°C 100.0%
32°C ou menos <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$121,748 Vol.
$121,748 Vol.
18 jul 2026
32°C ou menos
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
100%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C ou mais
<1%
36°C 100.0%
32°C ou menos <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$121,748 Vol.
$121,748 Vol.
18 jul 2026
32°C ou menos
$1,182 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,681 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$7,653 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$39,450 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$26,863 Vol.
100%
37°C
$32,985 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$6,316 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$4,092 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$856 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$316 Vol.
<1%
42°C ou mais
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$121,748Data de Término
18 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$121,748Data de Término
18 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from European and global forecasting systems indicates Madrid will likely see a peak temperature of 37°C on July 18 under a stable high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies, supporting the market's strong 59.5% implied probability for that outcome. Short-range guidance shows daytime maxima climbing from 35–36°C on July 16–17, with limited moisture and no significant frontal activity to moderate readings. The narrower probabilities for 36°C (24.5%) and 38°C (16.0%) reflect ensemble spread and typical model uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing two days ahead. Spain's record-warm first half of 2026 provides climatological context but does not alter the immediate synoptic setup. Updated NWP runs and any last-minute adjustments to the thermal ridge will be the key catalysts for shifts in trader positioning before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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