Recent meteorological model consensus and current high-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s July 5 maximum, with 40°C close behind. Early-July forecasts from agencies show daytime highs climbing to 36–38°C by July 4–5 amid clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with climatological peaks near 34°C but elevated by recent warming trends. Limited model spread and absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduce the chance of cooler readings below 38°C or extremes above 41°C. Updated runs closer to the date will refine these probabilities as surface observations and ensemble guidance evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 5 de julho?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 5 de julho?
38°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$82,966 Vol.
$82,966 Vol.
5 jul 2026
35°C or below
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$82,966 Vol.
$82,966 Vol.
5 jul 2026
35°C or below
$3,046 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,953 Vol.
No
37°C
$20,956 Vol.
No
38°C
$15,339 Vol.
Yes
39°C
$16,141 Vol.
No
40°C
$8,381 Vol.
No
41°C
$5,222 Vol.
No
42°C
$4,227 Vol.
No
43°C
$3,069 Vol.
No
44°C
$1,273 Vol.
No
45°C or higher
$1,359 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus and current high-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s July 5 maximum, with 40°C close behind. Early-July forecasts from agencies show daytime highs climbing to 36–38°C by July 4–5 amid clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with climatological peaks near 34°C but elevated by recent warming trends. Limited model spread and absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduce the chance of cooler readings below 38°C or extremes above 41°C. Updated runs closer to the date will refine these probabilities as surface observations and ensemble guidance evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$82,966Data de Término
5 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological model consensus and current high-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s July 5 maximum, with 40°C close behind. Early-July forecasts from agencies show daytime highs climbing to 36–38°C by July 4–5 amid clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with climatological peaks near 34°C but elevated by recent warming trends. Limited model spread and absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduce the chance of cooler readings below 38°C or extremes above 41°C. Updated runs closer to the date will refine these probabilities as surface observations and ensemble guidance evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$82,966Data de Término
5 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Recent meteorological model consensus and current high-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula position 39°C as the leading outcome for Madrid’s July 5 maximum, with 40°C close behind. Early-July forecasts from agencies show daytime highs climbing to 36–38°C by July 4–5 amid clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with climatological peaks near 34°C but elevated by recent warming trends. Limited model spread and absence of significant moisture or frontal activity reduce the chance of cooler readings below 38°C or extremes above 41°C. Updated runs closer to the date will refine these probabilities as surface observations and ensemble guidance evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions