**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, positioning 27°C as the most likely daily maximum.** Multiple forecast models from sources including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and others converge on a high near 27–29°C under overcast skies and periods of rain, well below the late-August climatological average of around 31°C. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud decks, combined with onshore winds advecting cooler marine air, limits afternoon warming despite typical seasonal humidity levels above 60%. Recent model runs show consistent signals of a frontal or disturbed pattern keeping temperatures capped, with minimal risk of clearing that could push readings toward 30°C or higher. This scientific consensus—emphasizing verified forecast parameters like cloud fraction, precipitation probability, and wind direction—underpins the market-implied probabilities, where traders assign the highest weight to 27°C (39.5%) followed by 28°C (28.5%). Newer model updates or observed clearing could still shift outcomes within the narrow 26–29°C range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio em 29 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio em 29 de agosto?
27°C 42%
28°C 29%
26°C 15%
29°C 9%
NOVO
$11,048 Vol.
NOVO
$11,048 Vol.
29 ago 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
15%
27°C
42%
28°C
29%
29°C
9%
30°C
3%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 42%
28°C 29%
26°C 15%
29°C 9%
NOVO
$11,048 Vol.
NOVO
$11,048 Vol.
29 ago 2026
22°C or below
$1,251 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$598 Vol.
1%
25°C
$391 Vol.
6%
26°C
$2,486 Vol.
15%
27°C
$1,227 Vol.
42%
28°C
$1,069 Vol.
29%
29°C
$1,423 Vol.
9%
30°C
$888 Vol.
3%
31°C
$115 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$408 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, positioning 27°C as the most likely daily maximum.**
Multiple forecast models from sources including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and others converge on a high near 27–29°C under overcast skies and periods of rain, well below the late-August climatological average of around 31°C. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud decks, combined with onshore winds advecting cooler marine air, limits afternoon warming despite typical seasonal humidity levels above 60%.
Recent model runs show consistent signals of a frontal or disturbed pattern keeping temperatures capped, with minimal risk of clearing that could push readings toward 30°C or higher. This scientific consensus—emphasizing verified forecast parameters like cloud fraction, precipitation probability, and wind direction—underpins the market-implied probabilities, where traders assign the highest weight to 27°C (39.5%) followed by 28°C (28.5%). Newer model updates or observed clearing could still shift outcomes within the narrow 26–29°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,048Data de Término
29 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, positioning 27°C as the most likely daily maximum.**
Multiple forecast models from sources including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and others converge on a high near 27–29°C under overcast skies and periods of rain, well below the late-August climatological average of around 31°C. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud decks, combined with onshore winds advecting cooler marine air, limits afternoon warming despite typical seasonal humidity levels above 60%.
Recent model runs show consistent signals of a frontal or disturbed pattern keeping temperatures capped, with minimal risk of clearing that could push readings toward 30°C or higher. This scientific consensus—emphasizing verified forecast parameters like cloud fraction, precipitation probability, and wind direction—underpins the market-implied probabilities, where traders assign the highest weight to 27°C (39.5%) followed by 28°C (28.5%). Newer model updates or observed clearing could still shift outcomes within the narrow 26–29°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,048Data de Término
29 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly flow are suppressing daytime heating in Tokyo on August 29, 2026, positioning 27°C as the most likely daily maximum.** Multiple forecast models from sources including the Met Office, WeatherBug, and others converge on a high near 27–29°C under overcast skies and periods of rain, well below the late-August climatological average of around 31°C. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud decks, combined with onshore winds advecting cooler marine air, limits afternoon warming despite typical seasonal humidity levels above 60%. Recent model runs show consistent signals of a frontal or disturbed pattern keeping temperatures capped, with minimal risk of clearing that could push readings toward 30°C or higher. This scientific consensus—emphasizing verified forecast parameters like cloud fraction, precipitation probability, and wind direction—underpins the market-implied probabilities, where traders assign the highest weight to 27°C (39.5%) followed by 28°C (28.5%). Newer model updates or observed clearing could still shift outcomes within the narrow 26–29°C range.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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