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Geopolítica·Navio

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Navio

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$2 Vol.

Polymarket

April 1

$0 Vol.

24%

April 2

$0 Vol.

38%

April 3

$0 Vol.

40%

April 4

$0 Vol.

35%

April 5

$0 Vol.

29%

April 6

$0 Vol.

26%

April 7

$2 Vol.

39%

April 8

$0 Vol.

47%

April 9

$0 Vol.

47%

April 10

$0 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2
Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.

Trader consensus shows low implied probability for Iran directly targeting commercial shipping, driven by Tehran's restraint amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions after October missile strikes and retaliatory airstrikes. Iran favors proxy actions via Houthis, who continue Red Sea attacks disrupting global trade routes like Bab el-Mandeb, over riskier Strait of Hormuz interference that could spike oil prices and draw US intervention. Recent seizures, such as the April MSC Aries tanker, highlight capabilities but no repeat amid nuclear talks and sanctions pressure. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Iranian responses to Israel, UN Security Council sessions, and US election outcomes shaping regional deterrence.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran successfully targets shipping on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "April 8" at 47%, followed by "April 9" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Iran successfully targets shipping on...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Iran successfully targets shipping on...?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran successfully targets shipping on...?" is "April 8" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 9" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran successfully targets shipping on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.