Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios o Irã atingirá com sucesso até 30 de abril?
Quantos navios o Irã atingirá com sucesso até 30 de abril?
8–9 100.0%
<2 <1%
2–3 <1%
4–5 <1%
$262,920 Vol.
$262,920 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<2
Não
2–3
Não
4–5
Não
6–7
Não
8–9
Sim
10+
Não
8–9 100.0%
<2 <1%
2–3 <1%
4–5 <1%
$262,920 Vol.
$262,920 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<2
$24,731 Vol.
Não
2–3
$43,827 Vol.
Não
4–5
$52,806 Vol.
Não
6–7
$45,107 Vol.
Não
8–9
$39,409 Vol.
Sim
10+
$57,039 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$262,920Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,920Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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