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icon for Israel se retira do Líbano por...?
Geopolítica·Cessar-fogo No Irão

Israel se retira do Líbano por...?

icon for Israel se retira do Líbano por...?
Geopolítica·Cessar-fogo No Irão

Israel se retira do Líbano por...?

$8,448,775 Vol.

30 set 2026
Polymarket

$8,448,775 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de setembro

$261,314 Vol.

1%

31 de dezembro

$225,668 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli officials maintain that full IDF redeployment from southern Lebanon hinges on verified Hezbollah disarmament across the country, per the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework. That deal established limited pilot zones for phased handovers to the Lebanese Armed Forces, yet Israeli leaders including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have repeatedly stated troops will remain in the security zone until the threat is eliminated, with no fixed timeline. Recent operations dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure near the Ali al-Taher Ridge and ongoing strikes into September 2026 underscore continued enforcement of the buffer. Hezbollah rejects disarmament ahead of withdrawal, while Lebanese army deployments face practical and political constraints. These dynamics, alongside scheduled coordination meetings, shape trader assessments of near-term resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,448,775
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli officials maintain that full IDF redeployment from southern Lebanon hinges on verified Hezbollah disarmament across the country, per the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework. That deal established limited pilot zones for phased handovers to the Lebanese Armed Forces, yet Israeli leaders including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have repeatedly stated troops will remain in the security zone until the threat is eliminated, with no fixed timeline. Recent operations dismantling Hezbollah infrastructure near the Ali al-Taher Ridge and ongoing strikes into September 2026 underscore continued enforcement of the buffer. Hezbollah rejects disarmament ahead of withdrawal, while Lebanese army deployments face practical and political constraints. These dynamics, alongside scheduled coordination meetings, shape trader assessments of near-term resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,448,775
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel se retira do Líbano por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 6%, followed by "30 de setembro" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel se retira do Líbano por...?" has generated $8.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel se retira do Líbano por...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Israel se retira do Líbano por...?" is "31 de dezembro" at just 6%, with "30 de setembro" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Israel se retira do Líbano por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.