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icon for Israel se retira do Líbano por...?
Geopolítica·Cessar-fogo No Irão

Israel se retira do Líbano por...?

icon for Israel se retira do Líbano por...?
Geopolítica·Cessar-fogo No Irão

Israel se retira do Líbano por...?

$8,448,735 Vol.

30 set 2026
Polymarket

$8,448,735 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de setembro

$261,314 Vol.

1%

31 de dezembro

$225,628 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel maintains a security buffer in southern Lebanon following its 2026 operations against Hezbollah, with any broader withdrawal explicitly conditioned on the Lebanese Armed Forces disarming the group and assuming full control, per the June U.S.-brokered framework agreement. That deal established limited pilot zones for phased Israeli redeployment, but implementation has stalled amid Hezbollah's rejection of the terms and ongoing verification disputes. Recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions, including a September 11 operation in the Ali Taher ridge area, underscore continued enforcement of the buffer while diplomatic talks proceed without fixed timelines. Netanyahu administration statements tie further pullbacks to verified threat reduction, consistent with historical patterns where Israeli forces have remained in contested zones absent durable security guarantees. Upcoming coordination group meetings and Lebanese army progress reports represent the nearest potential catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,448,735
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel maintains a security buffer in southern Lebanon following its 2026 operations against Hezbollah, with any broader withdrawal explicitly conditioned on the Lebanese Armed Forces disarming the group and assuming full control, per the June U.S.-brokered framework agreement. That deal established limited pilot zones for phased Israeli redeployment, but implementation has stalled amid Hezbollah's rejection of the terms and ongoing verification disputes. Recent Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions, including a September 11 operation in the Ali Taher ridge area, underscore continued enforcement of the buffer while diplomatic talks proceed without fixed timelines. Netanyahu administration statements tie further pullbacks to verified threat reduction, consistent with historical patterns where Israeli forces have remained in contested zones absent durable security guarantees. Upcoming coordination group meetings and Lebanese army progress reports represent the nearest potential catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$8,448,735
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel se retira do Líbano por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 6%, followed by "30 de setembro" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel se retira do Líbano por...?" has generated $8.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel se retira do Líbano por...?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Israel se retira do Líbano por...?" is "31 de dezembro" at just 6%, with "30 de setembro" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Israel se retira do Líbano por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.