Traders assign the highest implied probability (64.5%) to July 2026 U.S. CPI rising at least 0.1% month-over-month, with 0.0% a distant second at 28%, reflecting expectations that inflation remains sticky above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Recent June data showed softer-than-expected headline and core prints yet still implied a 3.7% year-over-year pace through that month, while Fed speakers, including new Chairman Kevin Warsh, have stressed persistent supply-side pressures and the need for sustained policy restraint. Stable labor-market conditions, resilient productivity, and lingering effects from prior tariff and geopolitical developments continue to anchor upward price pressures, keeping the market-implied path for monthly readings modestly positive. The next CPI release, due in mid-August, will provide the key catalyst for any repricing ahead of the FOMC’s September deliberations.