Recent cooling across northern France has tightened the forecast range for Paris’s minimum temperature on August 17. After mid-August highs near 33 °C, a shift to cloudier skies and lighter northerly flow is expected to limit daytime heating and promote greater nocturnal radiative cooling, producing overnight lows centered around 16–18 °C. Model consensus from short-range guidance places the most probable minimum near 17–18 °C, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture; clearer skies would favor the lower end of that band while residual humidity or light winds could hold readings closer to 18 °C. Traders therefore assign nearly equal weight to the 17 °C and 18 °C outcomes, with the 16 °C-or-below bucket reflecting residual downside risk if the cooling trend strengthens.