Jim Diodati, the incumbent mayor since 2010 seeking a fifth term, holds the clearest lead in the October 26, 2026 Niagara Falls mayoral race, with nominations closing August 21 and certification following shortly after. His established record on regional council, prior strong electoral performance, and platform emphasizing housing development, a new hospital project, and physician recruitment underpin trader consensus around his position. Lori Lococo, a sitting city councillor who entered late, represents the main named challenger but trails significantly amid a split field that also includes Paul Manning, Kevin Martineau, Michael Lucid, Gary Baker, and others focused on fiscal oversight, infrastructure, and local priorities. The absence of major recent disruptions or consolidated opposition has kept probabilities stable in the weeks since the candidate list finalized.