North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 7-8—the fourth and fifth known tests this year—anchor trader consensus at 75% implied probability for at least one more by April 30, reflecting the DPRK's accelerating weapons testing amid routine U.S.-South Korea military drills and Pyongyang's rhetoric branding Seoul its "most hostile enemy." Earlier March salvos, including 10-12 SRBMs on March 14 and a solid-fuel ICBM engine test on March 29 capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, underscore persistent escalation signals without de-escalation from official statements or diplomacy. This pattern of frequent provocations, often in clusters, drives the high "Yes" odds as traders weigh historical base rates of multiple launches per month against slim chances of a testing pause.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNorth Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
NOVO
NOVO
30 abr 2026
NOVO
NOVO
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 7-8—the fourth and fifth known tests this year—anchor trader consensus at 75% implied probability for at least one more by April 30, reflecting the DPRK's accelerating weapons testing amid routine U.S.-South Korea military drills and Pyongyang's rhetoric branding Seoul its "most hostile enemy." Earlier March salvos, including 10-12 SRBMs on March 14 and a solid-fuel ICBM engine test on March 29 capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, underscore persistent escalation signals without de-escalation from official statements or diplomacy. This pattern of frequent provocations, often in clusters, drives the high "Yes" odds as traders weigh historical base rates of multiple launches per month against slim chances of a testing pause.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Volume
$125Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 7-8—the fourth and fifth known tests this year—anchor trader consensus at 75% implied probability for at least one more by April 30, reflecting the DPRK's accelerating weapons testing amid routine U.S.-South Korea military drills and Pyongyang's rhetoric branding Seoul its "most hostile enemy." Earlier March salvos, including 10-12 SRBMs on March 14 and a solid-fuel ICBM engine test on March 29 capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, underscore persistent escalation signals without de-escalation from official statements or diplomacy. This pattern of frequent provocations, often in clusters, drives the high "Yes" odds as traders weigh historical base rates of multiple launches per month against slim chances of a testing pause.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$127Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...North Korea's back-to-back short-range ballistic missile launches toward the East Sea on April 7-8—the fourth and fifth known tests this year—anchor trader consensus at 75% implied probability for at least one more by April 30, reflecting the DPRK's accelerating weapons testing amid routine U.S.-South Korea military drills and Pyongyang's rhetoric branding Seoul its "most hostile enemy." Earlier March salvos, including 10-12 SRBMs on March 14 and a solid-fuel ICBM engine test on March 29 capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, underscore persistent escalation signals without de-escalation from official statements or diplomacy. This pattern of frequent provocations, often in clusters, drives the high "Yes" odds as traders weigh historical base rates of multiple launches per month against slim chances of a testing pause.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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