Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.8°C in September 2026 and models projecting a peak near or above +3.5°C, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating global anomalies amid the long-term anthropogenic trend. August 2026 set records at roughly 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in ERA5 data, and early September observations plus ensemble forecasts indicate a continuation of elevated warmth, though intra-month variability and the precise lag in global response introduce uncertainty between the leading 1.35–1.39°C and 1.40–1.44°C bins. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific spread, with the strong but still-evolving event and background ocean heat content limiting clearer separation of outcomes until final monthly data resolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSetembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Setembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,35–1,39ºC 46%
1,40–1,44ºC 39%
<1,30ºC 26%
1,30–1,34ºC 13%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
26%
1,30–1,34ºC
13%
1,35–1,39ºC
46%
1,40–1,44ºC
39%
1,45–1,49ºC
9%
>1,49ºC
7%
1,35–1,39ºC 46%
1,40–1,44ºC 39%
<1,30ºC 26%
1,30–1,34ºC 13%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
$69 Vol.
26%
1,30–1,34ºC
$1,343 Vol.
13%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
46%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
39%
1,45–1,49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1,49ºC
$263 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.8°C in September 2026 and models projecting a peak near or above +3.5°C, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating global anomalies amid the long-term anthropogenic trend. August 2026 set records at roughly 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in ERA5 data, and early September observations plus ensemble forecasts indicate a continuation of elevated warmth, though intra-month variability and the precise lag in global response introduce uncertainty between the leading 1.35–1.39°C and 1.40–1.44°C bins. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific spread, with the strong but still-evolving event and background ocean heat content limiting clearer separation of outcomes until final monthly data resolve.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,799Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.8°C in September 2026 and models projecting a peak near or above +3.5°C, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating global anomalies amid the long-term anthropogenic trend. August 2026 set records at roughly 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in ERA5 data, and early September observations plus ensemble forecasts indicate a continuation of elevated warmth, though intra-month variability and the precise lag in global response introduce uncertainty between the leading 1.35–1.39°C and 1.40–1.44°C bins. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific spread, with the strong but still-evolving event and background ocean heat content limiting clearer separation of outcomes until final monthly data resolve.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$1,799Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures reaching +2.8°C in September 2026 and models projecting a peak near or above +3.5°C, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating global anomalies amid the long-term anthropogenic trend. August 2026 set records at roughly 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline in ERA5 data, and early September observations plus ensemble forecasts indicate a continuation of elevated warmth, though intra-month variability and the precise lag in global response introduce uncertainty between the leading 1.35–1.39°C and 1.40–1.44°C bins. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific spread, with the strong but still-evolving event and background ocean heat content limiting clearer separation of outcomes until final monthly data resolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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