Recent U.S. tariff adjustments implemented in 2025 have moderated goods import growth while supporting modest export gains in capital goods and services, anchoring trader consensus around an 800–900 billion annual deficit for 2026. The 2025 goods-and-services shortfall closed at 901.5 billion, and early 2026 monthly readings have fluctuated between 55 and 70 billion amid front-loaded capital goods purchases tied to AI investment before settling lower. CBO projections anticipate further narrowing as a share of GDP through the year, driven by higher duties curbing import demand, dollar depreciation aiding exports, and adjustments following tariff-related refunds. These dynamics keep the 800–900 billion band as the clear modal outcome, with adjacent ranges reflecting uncertainty over the pace of import substitution and global demand responses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$21,256 Vol.
$21,256 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800 bilhões
10%
800–900B
40%
900B–1T
19%
1T–1,1T
4%
1,1T+
4%
$21,256 Vol.
$21,256 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,808 Vol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$505 Vol.
10%
700–800 bilhões
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
40%
900B–1T
$984 Vol.
19%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
4%
1,1T+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff adjustments implemented in 2025 have moderated goods import growth while supporting modest export gains in capital goods and services, anchoring trader consensus around an 800–900 billion annual deficit for 2026. The 2025 goods-and-services shortfall closed at 901.5 billion, and early 2026 monthly readings have fluctuated between 55 and 70 billion amid front-loaded capital goods purchases tied to AI investment before settling lower. CBO projections anticipate further narrowing as a share of GDP through the year, driven by higher duties curbing import demand, dollar depreciation aiding exports, and adjustments following tariff-related refunds. These dynamics keep the 800–900 billion band as the clear modal outcome, with adjacent ranges reflecting uncertainty over the pace of import substitution and global demand responses.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,256Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. tariff adjustments implemented in 2025 have moderated goods import growth while supporting modest export gains in capital goods and services, anchoring trader consensus around an 800–900 billion annual deficit for 2026. The 2025 goods-and-services shortfall closed at 901.5 billion, and early 2026 monthly readings have fluctuated between 55 and 70 billion amid front-loaded capital goods purchases tied to AI investment before settling lower. CBO projections anticipate further narrowing as a share of GDP through the year, driven by higher duties curbing import demand, dollar depreciation aiding exports, and adjustments following tariff-related refunds. These dynamics keep the 800–900 billion band as the clear modal outcome, with adjacent ranges reflecting uncertainty over the pace of import substitution and global demand responses.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,256Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. tariff adjustments implemented in 2025 have moderated goods import growth while supporting modest export gains in capital goods and services, anchoring trader consensus around an 800–900 billion annual deficit for 2026. The 2025 goods-and-services shortfall closed at 901.5 billion, and early 2026 monthly readings have fluctuated between 55 and 70 billion amid front-loaded capital goods purchases tied to AI investment before settling lower. CBO projections anticipate further narrowing as a share of GDP through the year, driven by higher duties curbing import demand, dollar depreciation aiding exports, and adjustments following tariff-related refunds. These dynamics keep the 800–900 billion band as the clear modal outcome, with adjacent ranges reflecting uncertainty over the pace of import substitution and global demand responses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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