Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a narrowing deficit, with April 2026 figures at $55.9 billion after modest narrowing from March, driven by stronger exports of capital goods and industrial supplies alongside tariff-adjusted import levels. Ongoing effects from 2025 tariff expansions under reciprocal trade policies have reduced goods imports from key partners like China while supporting some export recovery, consistent with year-to-date trends below prior-year averages. CBO projections indicate the annual deficit continuing to decline as a share of GDP through 2026 due to slower import growth and dollar depreciation, though full-year results remain sensitive to policy implementation, global demand, and supply-chain adjustments. Trader positioning around the 800–900B range reflects these measured contraction signals amid ongoing uncertainty in bilateral flows.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
3%
600–700B
10%
700–800 bilhões
10%
800–900B
34%
900B–1T
19%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1T+
4%
$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,813 Vol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
3%
600–700B
$505 Vol.
10%
700–800 bilhões
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
34%
900B–1T
$984 Vol.
19%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
5%
1,1T+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a narrowing deficit, with April 2026 figures at $55.9 billion after modest narrowing from March, driven by stronger exports of capital goods and industrial supplies alongside tariff-adjusted import levels. Ongoing effects from 2025 tariff expansions under reciprocal trade policies have reduced goods imports from key partners like China while supporting some export recovery, consistent with year-to-date trends below prior-year averages. CBO projections indicate the annual deficit continuing to decline as a share of GDP through 2026 due to slower import growth and dollar depreciation, though full-year results remain sensitive to policy implementation, global demand, and supply-chain adjustments. Trader positioning around the 800–900B range reflects these measured contraction signals amid ongoing uncertainty in bilateral flows.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,261Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a narrowing deficit, with April 2026 figures at $55.9 billion after modest narrowing from March, driven by stronger exports of capital goods and industrial supplies alongside tariff-adjusted import levels. Ongoing effects from 2025 tariff expansions under reciprocal trade policies have reduced goods imports from key partners like China while supporting some export recovery, consistent with year-to-date trends below prior-year averages. CBO projections indicate the annual deficit continuing to decline as a share of GDP through 2026 due to slower import growth and dollar depreciation, though full-year results remain sensitive to policy implementation, global demand, and supply-chain adjustments. Trader positioning around the 800–900B range reflects these measured contraction signals amid ongoing uncertainty in bilateral flows.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,261Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show a narrowing deficit, with April 2026 figures at $55.9 billion after modest narrowing from March, driven by stronger exports of capital goods and industrial supplies alongside tariff-adjusted import levels. Ongoing effects from 2025 tariff expansions under reciprocal trade policies have reduced goods imports from key partners like China while supporting some export recovery, consistent with year-to-date trends below prior-year averages. CBO projections indicate the annual deficit continuing to decline as a share of GDP through 2026 due to slower import growth and dollar depreciation, though full-year results remain sensitive to policy implementation, global demand, and supply-chain adjustments. Trader positioning around the 800–900B range reflects these measured contraction signals amid ongoing uncertainty in bilateral flows.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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