Recent tariff increases implemented in early 2025 continue to curb import growth while prompting supply-chain adjustments, contributing to a narrower goods and services deficit of $901.5 billion in 2025. Monthly readings through March 2026 show deficits near $60 billion amid recovering exports and fluctuating import demand tied to fiscal measures and energy market shifts. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the $800–900 billion and $900 billion–$1 trillion brackets, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of import rebound under stronger domestic demand versus sustained tariff effects and dollar movements. Key upcoming catalysts include further trade data releases and any additional policy changes that could alter the trajectory before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$21,156 Vol.
$21,156 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
6%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
8%
700–800 bilhões
8%
800–900B
45%
900B–1T
28%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1T+
4%
$21,156 Vol.
$21,156 Vol.
28 fev 2027
<500B
$16,708 Vol.
6%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$505 Vol.
8%
700–800 bilhões
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
45%
900B–1T
$984 Vol.
28%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
5%
1,1T+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff increases implemented in early 2025 continue to curb import growth while prompting supply-chain adjustments, contributing to a narrower goods and services deficit of $901.5 billion in 2025. Monthly readings through March 2026 show deficits near $60 billion amid recovering exports and fluctuating import demand tied to fiscal measures and energy market shifts. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the $800–900 billion and $900 billion–$1 trillion brackets, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of import rebound under stronger domestic demand versus sustained tariff effects and dollar movements. Key upcoming catalysts include further trade data releases and any additional policy changes that could alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,156Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff increases implemented in early 2025 continue to curb import growth while prompting supply-chain adjustments, contributing to a narrower goods and services deficit of $901.5 billion in 2025. Monthly readings through March 2026 show deficits near $60 billion amid recovering exports and fluctuating import demand tied to fiscal measures and energy market shifts. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the $800–900 billion and $900 billion–$1 trillion brackets, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of import rebound under stronger domestic demand versus sustained tariff effects and dollar movements. Key upcoming catalysts include further trade data releases and any additional policy changes that could alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,156Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent tariff increases implemented in early 2025 continue to curb import growth while prompting supply-chain adjustments, contributing to a narrower goods and services deficit of $901.5 billion in 2025. Monthly readings through March 2026 show deficits near $60 billion amid recovering exports and fluctuating import demand tied to fiscal measures and energy market shifts. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the $800–900 billion and $900 billion–$1 trillion brackets, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of import rebound under stronger domestic demand versus sustained tariff effects and dollar movements. Key upcoming catalysts include further trade data releases and any additional policy changes that could alter the trajectory before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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