Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman is seeking re-election in Virginia’s 7th congressional district under the map in place after a 2026 redistricting amendment was struck down. Forecasters rate the seat as Likely or Solid Democratic, reflecting its modest partisan lean and Vindman’s 2024 victory margin of roughly three points over the Republican nominee. Democratic primary candidates have begun organizing ahead of the August 4 contest, while Republican fields remain less defined at this early stage of the cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 76.5 percent implied probability and the Republican Party 19.1 percent, consistent with historical midterm patterns for an incumbent in a district with this voting index and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVA-07 House Election Winner
VA-07 House Election Winner
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
76%
Republican Party
18%
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$229 Vol.
76%
Republican Party
$538 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman is seeking re-election in Virginia’s 7th congressional district under the map in place after a 2026 redistricting amendment was struck down. Forecasters rate the seat as Likely or Solid Democratic, reflecting its modest partisan lean and Vindman’s 2024 victory margin of roughly three points over the Republican nominee. Democratic primary candidates have begun organizing ahead of the August 4 contest, while Republican fields remain less defined at this early stage of the cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 76.5 percent implied probability and the Republican Party 19.1 percent, consistent with historical midterm patterns for an incumbent in a district with this voting index and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$768Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman is seeking re-election in Virginia’s 7th congressional district under the map in place after a 2026 redistricting amendment was struck down. Forecasters rate the seat as Likely or Solid Democratic, reflecting its modest partisan lean and Vindman’s 2024 victory margin of roughly three points over the Republican nominee. Democratic primary candidates have begun organizing ahead of the August 4 contest, while Republican fields remain less defined at this early stage of the cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 76.5 percent implied probability and the Republican Party 19.1 percent, consistent with historical midterm patterns for an incumbent in a district with this voting index and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$768Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman is seeking re-election in Virginia’s 7th congressional district under the map in place after a 2026 redistricting amendment was struck down. Forecasters rate the seat as Likely or Solid Democratic, reflecting its modest partisan lean and Vindman’s 2024 victory margin of roughly three points over the Republican nominee. Democratic primary candidates have begun organizing ahead of the August 4 contest, while Republican fields remain less defined at this early stage of the cycle. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 76.5 percent implied probability and the Republican Party 19.1 percent, consistent with historical midterm patterns for an incumbent in a district with this voting index and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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