Record early voting at 23.51 percent, the highest for South Korean local elections, combined with midday figures reaching 57.4 percent by 5 p.m. on June 3, has anchored trader consensus on 60-65 percent final turnout for the Seoul mayoral contest. This exceeds the 2022 local elections' 50.9 percent nationwide rate and aligns with Seoul's confirmed 63.53 percent participation once counting concludes. The elevated participation reflects broader engagement in the first nationwide local vote under the current administration. Ballot paper shortages at multiple Seoul polling stations, which prompted extended voting, protests, and delays in National Election Commission certification, represent the primary variables that could still shift the final tally outside this narrow band.