Recent breakthroughs, including Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think and OpenAI systems reaching gold-medal thresholds at the 2025 IMO, have established a baseline for frontier large language models on olympiad-level math. However, traders assign a 64.5% probability to “No” for 2026 because official gold recognition depends on formal IMO grading of general-purpose AI submissions under the year’s specific problems, which have shown uneven results on new benchmarks like MathNet that expose gaps in visual reasoning and rigorous proof generation. While models such as GPT-5.6 reportedly solved 2026 problems in testing, the absence of confirmed, officially verified perfect or gold-level entries by early August—combined with historical patterns of benchmark slippage and stricter certification requirements—supports the market-implied odds. Key upcoming catalysts include any late official announcements from labs or the IMO committee regarding verified 2026 submissions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAI выиграл золотую медаль IMO в 2026 году?
AI выиграл золотую медаль IMO в 2026 году?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent breakthroughs, including Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think and OpenAI systems reaching gold-medal thresholds at the 2025 IMO, have established a baseline for frontier large language models on olympiad-level math. However, traders assign a 64.5% probability to “No” for 2026 because official gold recognition depends on formal IMO grading of general-purpose AI submissions under the year’s specific problems, which have shown uneven results on new benchmarks like MathNet that expose gaps in visual reasoning and rigorous proof generation. While models such as GPT-5.6 reportedly solved 2026 problems in testing, the absence of confirmed, officially verified perfect or gold-level entries by early August—combined with historical patterns of benchmark slippage and stricter certification requirements—supports the market-implied odds. Key upcoming catalysts include any late official announcements from labs or the IMO committee regarding verified 2026 submissions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Объем
$8,374Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".Recent breakthroughs, including Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think and OpenAI systems reaching gold-medal thresholds at the 2025 IMO, have established a baseline for frontier large language models on olympiad-level math. However, traders assign a 64.5% probability to “No” for 2026 because official gold recognition depends on formal IMO grading of general-purpose AI submissions under the year’s specific problems, which have shown uneven results on new benchmarks like MathNet that expose gaps in visual reasoning and rigorous proof generation. While models such as GPT-5.6 reportedly solved 2026 problems in testing, the absence of confirmed, officially verified perfect or gold-level entries by early August—combined with historical patterns of benchmark slippage and stricter certification requirements—supports the market-implied odds. Key upcoming catalysts include any late official announcements from labs or the IMO committee regarding verified 2026 submissions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Объем
$8,374Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent breakthroughs, including Google DeepMind’s Gemini Deep Think and OpenAI systems reaching gold-medal thresholds at the 2025 IMO, have established a baseline for frontier large language models on olympiad-level math. However, traders assign a 64.5% probability to “No” for 2026 because official gold recognition depends on formal IMO grading of general-purpose AI submissions under the year’s specific problems, which have shown uneven results on new benchmarks like MathNet that expose gaps in visual reasoning and rigorous proof generation. While models such as GPT-5.6 reportedly solved 2026 problems in testing, the absence of confirmed, officially verified perfect or gold-level entries by early August—combined with historical patterns of benchmark slippage and stricter certification requirements—supports the market-implied odds. Key upcoming catalysts include any late official announcements from labs or the IMO committee regarding verified 2026 submissions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы