Meta's Watermelon model, the successor to its April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training with no public launch as of early September 2026. Internal July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted benchmark parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5, achieved via roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, alongside planned Muse Spark updates emphasizing coding and agentic gains. August reporting pointed to an October 2026 target tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform, positioning the model amid Meta's push to close gaps with frontier labs through scaled infrastructure and agent capabilities. Key near-term catalysts include any official timeline confirmation, independent benchmark results, or shifts in competitive releases from OpenAI or Anthropic that could influence trader views on resolution timing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМодель Meta «Арбуз», выпущенная...?
Модель Meta «Арбуз», выпущенная...?
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября
13%
31 октября
62%
30 ноября
75%
$60 Объем
30 сентября
$20 Объем
13%
31 октября
$0 Объем
62%
30 ноября
$40 Объем
75%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon model, the successor to its April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training with no public launch as of early September 2026. Internal July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted benchmark parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5, achieved via roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, alongside planned Muse Spark updates emphasizing coding and agentic gains. August reporting pointed to an October 2026 target tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform, positioning the model amid Meta's push to close gaps with frontier labs through scaled infrastructure and agent capabilities. Key near-term catalysts include any official timeline confirmation, independent benchmark results, or shifts in competitive releases from OpenAI or Anthropic that could influence trader views on resolution timing.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Объем
$60Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon model, the successor to its April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training with no public launch as of early September 2026. Internal July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted benchmark parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5, achieved via roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, alongside planned Muse Spark updates emphasizing coding and agentic gains. August reporting pointed to an October 2026 target tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform, positioning the model amid Meta's push to close gaps with frontier labs through scaled infrastructure and agent capabilities. Key near-term catalysts include any official timeline confirmation, independent benchmark results, or shifts in competitive releases from OpenAI or Anthropic that could influence trader views on resolution timing.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$60Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Meta's Watermelon model, the successor to its April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training with no public launch as of early September 2026. Internal July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted benchmark parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5, achieved via roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, alongside planned Muse Spark updates emphasizing coding and agentic gains. August reporting pointed to an October 2026 target tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform, positioning the model amid Meta's push to close gaps with frontier labs through scaled infrastructure and agent capabilities. Key near-term catalysts include any official timeline confirmation, independent benchmark results, or shifts in competitive releases from OpenAI or Anthropic that could influence trader views on resolution timing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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