Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo shows Apple has placed the Vision Pro successor "on ice," redirecting engineers to smart glasses slated for late 2027 while canceling the lighter Vision Air variant. The company seeks major reductions in weight and cost before advancing a true Generation 2 model, with credible timelines pointing to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest—well after the 2027 threshold. This deprioritization, following the lukewarm M5 refresh in 2025, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against a pre-2027 release. Trader consensus reflects these verified engineering and strategic shifts, though an unforeseen design breakthrough or leadership pivot under incoming CEO John Ternus could theoretically accelerate plans.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоApple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Apple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Да
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo shows Apple has placed the Vision Pro successor "on ice," redirecting engineers to smart glasses slated for late 2027 while canceling the lighter Vision Air variant. The company seeks major reductions in weight and cost before advancing a true Generation 2 model, with credible timelines pointing to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest—well after the 2027 threshold. This deprioritization, following the lukewarm M5 refresh in 2025, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against a pre-2027 release. Trader consensus reflects these verified engineering and strategic shifts, though an unforeseen design breakthrough or leadership pivot under incoming CEO John Ternus could theoretically accelerate plans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$6,272Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo shows Apple has placed the Vision Pro successor "on ice," redirecting engineers to smart glasses slated for late 2027 while canceling the lighter Vision Air variant. The company seeks major reductions in weight and cost before advancing a true Generation 2 model, with credible timelines pointing to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest—well after the 2027 threshold. This deprioritization, following the lukewarm M5 refresh in 2025, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against a pre-2027 release. Trader consensus reflects these verified engineering and strategic shifts, though an unforeseen design breakthrough or leadership pivot under incoming CEO John Ternus could theoretically accelerate plans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,272Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent Bloomberg reporting from Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo shows Apple has placed the Vision Pro successor "on ice," redirecting engineers to smart glasses slated for late 2027 while canceling the lighter Vision Air variant. The company seeks major reductions in weight and cost before advancing a true Generation 2 model, with credible timelines pointing to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest—well after the 2027 threshold. This deprioritization, following the lukewarm M5 refresh in 2025, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against a pre-2027 release. Trader consensus reflects these verified engineering and strategic shifts, though an unforeseen design breakthrough or leadership pivot under incoming CEO John Ternus could theoretically accelerate plans.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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