Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual iPhone launches, with new models typically announced in September and available by year-end, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports and consistent historical timing reinforce trader expectations that at least premium variants in the lineup will reach consumers before December, even amid a split-release approach favoring higher-end devices this fall. While this creates strong implied probability, realistic risks remain, including further delays from manufacturing constraints on advanced components like 2nm chips, unexpected regulatory hurdles, or shifts in Apple’s strategy that could push the base model into early 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Будет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Да
>99% вероятность
$252,064 Объем
$252,064 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
>99% вероятность
$252,064 Объем
$252,064 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual iPhone launches, with new models typically announced in September and available by year-end, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports and consistent historical timing reinforce trader expectations that at least premium variants in the lineup will reach consumers before December, even amid a split-release approach favoring higher-end devices this fall. While this creates strong implied probability, realistic risks remain, including further delays from manufacturing constraints on advanced components like 2nm chips, unexpected regulatory hurdles, or shifts in Apple’s strategy that could push the base model into early 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Объем
$252,064Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual iPhone launches, with new models typically announced in September and available by year-end, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports and consistent historical timing reinforce trader expectations that at least premium variants in the lineup will reach consumers before December, even amid a split-release approach favoring higher-end devices this fall. While this creates strong implied probability, realistic risks remain, including further delays from manufacturing constraints on advanced components like 2nm chips, unexpected regulatory hurdles, or shifts in Apple’s strategy that could push the base model into early 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$252,064Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
Apple’s longstanding pattern of annual iPhone launches, with new models typically announced in September and available by year-end, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Supply chain reports and consistent historical timing reinforce trader expectations that at least premium variants in the lineup will reach consumers before December, even amid a split-release approach favoring higher-end devices this fall. While this creates strong implied probability, realistic risks remain, including further delays from manufacturing constraints on advanced components like 2nm chips, unexpected regulatory hurdles, or shifts in Apple’s strategy that could push the base model into early 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы