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icon for Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?
Технологии·AI

Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?

icon for Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?
Технологии·AI

Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?

Да

6% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

6% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong trader consensus against Sam Altman signing the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 rests on his consistent pattern of endorsing related ideas in his own words rather than adding his name to the July 2026 employee petition. Altman has publicly backed Dario Amodei’s call to pace frontier AI development, agreed on the value of independent embedded evaluators with employee-level access, and highlighted risks from automated research acceleration, yet he has not signed despite OpenAI staff participation and corporate-level support from the company. With only two weeks left and the statement framed for verified employees, the market-implied odds reflect limited incentive or precedent for a last-minute CEO signature. A sudden policy announcement or alignment with new safety commitments could still shift outcomes, though no such catalyst has emerged.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,591
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong trader consensus against Sam Altman signing the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 rests on his consistent pattern of endorsing related ideas in his own words rather than adding his name to the July 2026 employee petition. Altman has publicly backed Dario Amodei’s call to pace frontier AI development, agreed on the value of independent embedded evaluators with employee-level access, and highlighted risks from automated research acceleration, yet he has not signed despite OpenAI staff participation and corporate-level support from the company. With only two weeks left and the statement framed for verified employees, the market-implied odds reflect limited incentive or precedent for a last-minute CEO signature. A sudden policy announcement or alignment with new safety commitments could still shift outcomes, though no such catalyst has emerged.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,591
Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Связанные

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Подпишет ли Сэм Олтман заявление "Pacing the Frontier" до 30 сентября?» с 6%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 6¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 6%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Sep 14, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Сэм Альтман подпишет заявление Pacing the Frontier к 30 сентября?» — «Подпишет ли Сэм Олтман заявление "Pacing the Frontier" до 30 сентября?» всего с 6%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

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