Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 95.9% implied probability for the Bank of England to hold its base rate at 3.75% at the April 30, 2026, MPC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and heightened geopolitical risks. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year—well above the 2% target—with core measures at 3.2%, exacerbated by Middle East tensions driving energy costs higher, as noted in the March MPC's unanimous hold decision. Easing wage growth offers some offset, but trader consensus views cuts as premature amid these pressures. A challenge could arise from unexpectedly soft March CPI data due imminently or de-escalation in global conflicts easing oil prices, though such shifts remain low-probability near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРешение Банка Англии в апреле?
Решение Банка Англии в апреле?
Без изменений 95.9%
Повышение 3.8%
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
Снижение на 25 б.п. <1%
$448,606 Объем
$448,606 Объем
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
<1%
Без изменений
96%
Повышение
4%
Без изменений 95.9%
Повышение 3.8%
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
Снижение на 25 б.п. <1%
$448,606 Объем
$448,606 Объем
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
<1%
Без изменений
96%
Повышение
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 95.9% implied probability for the Bank of England to hold its base rate at 3.75% at the April 30, 2026, MPC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation and heightened geopolitical risks. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year—well above the 2% target—with core measures at 3.2%, exacerbated by Middle East tensions driving energy costs higher, as noted in the March MPC's unanimous hold decision. Easing wage growth offers some offset, but trader consensus views cuts as premature amid these pressures. A challenge could arise from unexpectedly soft March CPI data due imminently or de-escalation in global conflicts easing oil prices, though such shifts remain low-probability near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы