Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson commands 99% trader consensus to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party endorsement, $2.6 million cash on hand, and emphasis on bipartisan priorities like wildfire relief and veterans' issues amid a redrawn D+8 district. Challenger Eric Jones follows at 90%, buoyed by leading $3.2 million in receipts through Silicon Valley donors rejecting corporate PACs, Our Revolution backing, and digital outreach targeting young voters disillusioned post-2024. Fragmented Republicans—six low-funded candidates—split votes, historically enabling Democratic sweeps in top-two systems; early voting begins May 4, with no public polling to shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$22,234 Объем
2 июн. 2026 г.
Майк Томпсон
76%
Эрик Джонс
89%
Тревор Мэррелл
14%
Хит Фулкерсон
11%
Шэрон Браун
11%
Мэнди Гусар
6%
Джон Уэсли Тайлер
12%
Лори Маккензи
49%
$22,234 Объем
Майк Томпсон
$6,660 Объем
76%
Эрик Джонс
$4,571 Объем
89%
Тревор Мэррелл
$6,994 Объем
14%
Хит Фулкерсон
$315 Объем
11%
Шэрон Браун
$1,621 Объем
11%
Мэнди Гусар
$744 Объем
6%
Джон Уэсли Тайлер
$670 Объем
12%
Лори Маккензи
$710 Объем
49%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson commands 99% trader consensus to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party endorsement, $2.6 million cash on hand, and emphasis on bipartisan priorities like wildfire relief and veterans' issues amid a redrawn D+8 district. Challenger Eric Jones follows at 90%, buoyed by leading $3.2 million in receipts through Silicon Valley donors rejecting corporate PACs, Our Revolution backing, and digital outreach targeting young voters disillusioned post-2024. Fragmented Republicans—six low-funded candidates—split votes, historically enabling Democratic sweeps in top-two systems; early voting begins May 4, with no public polling to shift odds.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Объем
$22,234Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson commands 99% trader consensus to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party endorsement, $2.6 million cash on hand, and emphasis on bipartisan priorities like wildfire relief and veterans' issues amid a redrawn D+8 district. Challenger Eric Jones follows at 90%, buoyed by leading $3.2 million in receipts through Silicon Valley donors rejecting corporate PACs, Our Revolution backing, and digital outreach targeting young voters disillusioned post-2024. Fragmented Republicans—six low-funded candidates—split votes, historically enabling Democratic sweeps in top-two systems; early voting begins May 4, with no public polling to shift odds.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Объем
$22,234Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson commands 99% trader consensus to advance from California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2, driven by his 28-year tenure, Democratic Party endorsement, $2.6 million cash on hand, and emphasis on bipartisan priorities like wildfire relief and veterans' issues amid a redrawn D+8 district. Challenger Eric Jones follows at 90%, buoyed by leading $3.2 million in receipts through Silicon Valley donors rejecting corporate PACs, Our Revolution backing, and digital outreach targeting young voters disillusioned post-2024. Fragmented Republicans—six low-funded candidates—split votes, historically enabling Democratic sweeps in top-two systems; early voting begins May 4, with no public polling to shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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