Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive top-two primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District on June 2, shaping trader consensus amid a fragmented field of six Republicans and one independent. Late March fundraising showed Jones raising $3.25 million versus Thompson's $2.99 million, though Thompson holds $2.56 million cash on hand to Jones's $1.45 million; endorsements split with the Democratic Party of California backing Thompson and Our Revolution supporting Jones. Recent redistricting via Proposition 50 trimmed the district's D+8 partisan lean slightly, but no public polling exists. GOP vote-splitting likely ensures Democratic dominance in advancement, with the general rated Solid Democratic by forecasters.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$22,099 Объем
2 июн. 2026 г.
Майк Томпсон
99%
Эрик Джонс
90%
Тревор Мэррелл
12%
Хит Фулкерсон
11%
Джон Уэсли Тайлер
9%
Шэрон Браун
6%
Мэнди Гусар
6%
Лори Маккензи
5%
$22,099 Объем
Майк Томпсон
$6,602 Объем
99%
Эрик Джонс
$4,475 Объем
90%
Тревор Мэррелл
$6,994 Объем
12%
Хит Фулкерсон
$315 Объем
11%
Джон Уэсли Тайлер
$670 Объем
9%
Шэрон Браун
$1,605 Объем
6%
Мэнди Гусар
$728 Объем
6%
Лори Маккензи
$710 Объем
5%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive top-two primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District on June 2, shaping trader consensus amid a fragmented field of six Republicans and one independent. Late March fundraising showed Jones raising $3.25 million versus Thompson's $2.99 million, though Thompson holds $2.56 million cash on hand to Jones's $1.45 million; endorsements split with the Democratic Party of California backing Thompson and Our Revolution supporting Jones. Recent redistricting via Proposition 50 trimmed the district's D+8 partisan lean slightly, but no public polling exists. GOP vote-splitting likely ensures Democratic dominance in advancement, with the general rated Solid Democratic by forecasters.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Объем
$22,099Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive top-two primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District on June 2, shaping trader consensus amid a fragmented field of six Republicans and one independent. Late March fundraising showed Jones raising $3.25 million versus Thompson's $2.99 million, though Thompson holds $2.56 million cash on hand to Jones's $1.45 million; endorsements split with the Democratic Party of California backing Thompson and Our Revolution supporting Jones. Recent redistricting via Proposition 50 trimmed the district's D+8 partisan lean slightly, but no public polling exists. GOP vote-splitting likely ensures Democratic dominance in advancement, with the general rated Solid Democratic by forecasters.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Объем
$22,099Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) faces a competitive top-two primary challenge from well-funded Eric Jones (D) in California's 4th Congressional District on June 2, shaping trader consensus amid a fragmented field of six Republicans and one independent. Late March fundraising showed Jones raising $3.25 million versus Thompson's $2.99 million, though Thompson holds $2.56 million cash on hand to Jones's $1.45 million; endorsements split with the Democratic Party of California backing Thompson and Our Revolution supporting Jones. Recent redistricting via Proposition 50 trimmed the district's D+8 partisan lean slightly, but no public polling exists. GOP vote-splitting likely ensures Democratic dominance in advancement, with the general rated Solid Democratic by forecasters.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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