California’s 12th congressional district encompasses strongly Democratic areas of the East Bay, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda County, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 60 percent and recent House races have produced Democratic margins above 65 percent. Incumbent Lateefah Simon (D) and Jamie Joyce (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November 3 general election, locking in a Democratic outcome under the state’s primary rules. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty and the absence of any viable Republican path. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic candidates withdrawing or a fundamental realignment in district voting patterns not observed in decades.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$40,929 Объем
$40,929 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
4%
$40,929 Объем
$40,929 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$24,042 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$16,887 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district encompasses strongly Democratic areas of the East Bay, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda County, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 60 percent and recent House races have produced Democratic margins above 65 percent. Incumbent Lateefah Simon (D) and Jamie Joyce (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November 3 general election, locking in a Democratic outcome under the state’s primary rules. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty and the absence of any viable Republican path. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic candidates withdrawing or a fundamental realignment in district voting patterns not observed in decades.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$40,929Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 12th congressional district encompasses strongly Democratic areas of the East Bay, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda County, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 60 percent and recent House races have produced Democratic margins above 65 percent. Incumbent Lateefah Simon (D) and Jamie Joyce (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November 3 general election, locking in a Democratic outcome under the state’s primary rules. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty and the absence of any viable Republican path. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic candidates withdrawing or a fundamental realignment in district voting patterns not observed in decades.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$40,929Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 12th congressional district encompasses strongly Democratic areas of the East Bay, including parts of Oakland, Berkeley, and Alameda County, where Democratic voter registration exceeds 60 percent and recent House races have produced Democratic margins above 65 percent. Incumbent Lateefah Simon (D) and Jamie Joyce (D) advanced from the June 2, 2026 top-two primary to face each other in the November 3 general election, locking in a Democratic outcome under the state’s primary rules. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty and the absence of any viable Republican path. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic candidates withdrawing or a fundamental realignment in district voting patterns not observed in decades.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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