Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th congressional district, which carries a strongly Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+39 and has delivered consistent Democratic victories in recent cycles. Simon's substantial fundraising edge and limited primary opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two primary reinforce expectations of advancement to the November general election. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's voter registration patterns and historical margins. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal driven by events such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or a national political shift large enough to overcome the structural partisan gap.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$37,355 Объем
$37,355 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
5%
$37,355 Объем
$37,355 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$23,142 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$14,212 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th congressional district, which carries a strongly Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+39 and has delivered consistent Democratic victories in recent cycles. Simon's substantial fundraising edge and limited primary opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two primary reinforce expectations of advancement to the November general election. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's voter registration patterns and historical margins. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal driven by events such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or a national political shift large enough to overcome the structural partisan gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$37,355Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th congressional district, which carries a strongly Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+39 and has delivered consistent Democratic victories in recent cycles. Simon's substantial fundraising edge and limited primary opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two primary reinforce expectations of advancement to the November general election. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's voter registration patterns and historical margins. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal driven by events such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or a national political shift large enough to overcome the structural partisan gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$37,355Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon holds a commanding position in California's 12th congressional district, which carries a strongly Democratic partisan voting index exceeding D+39 and has delivered consistent Democratic victories in recent cycles. Simon's substantial fundraising edge and limited primary opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two primary reinforce expectations of advancement to the November general election. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's voter registration patterns and historical margins. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal driven by events such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or a national political shift large enough to overcome the structural partisan gap.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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