Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's unopposed advance through California's June 2 top-two primary underscores the district's entrenched Democratic dominance in the East Bay, where voter registration heavily favors the party and historical results show consistent double-digit margins. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid D, reflecting its D+39 partisan voting index and limited Republican infrastructure or candidate recruitment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive opposition, though an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national political shift could still alter the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$40,920 Объем
$40,920 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
4%
$40,920 Объем
$40,920 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$24,042 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$16,878 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's unopposed advance through California's June 2 top-two primary underscores the district's entrenched Democratic dominance in the East Bay, where voter registration heavily favors the party and historical results show consistent double-digit margins. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid D, reflecting its D+39 partisan voting index and limited Republican infrastructure or candidate recruitment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive opposition, though an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national political shift could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$40,920Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's unopposed advance through California's June 2 top-two primary underscores the district's entrenched Democratic dominance in the East Bay, where voter registration heavily favors the party and historical results show consistent double-digit margins. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid D, reflecting its D+39 partisan voting index and limited Republican infrastructure or candidate recruitment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive opposition, though an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national political shift could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$40,920Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's unopposed advance through California's June 2 top-two primary underscores the district's entrenched Democratic dominance in the East Bay, where voter registration heavily favors the party and historical results show consistent double-digit margins. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid D, reflecting its D+39 partisan voting index and limited Republican infrastructure or candidate recruitment ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive opposition, though an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unprecedented national political shift could still alter the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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