Lateefah Simon, the Democratic incumbent elected in 2024, faces a June 2, 2026 top-two primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in California's 12th congressional district, a heavily urban area in northern Alameda County with a longstanding D+39 partisan lean. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with its recent history under predecessors including Barbara Lee. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner reflects the absence of competitive Republican candidates and structural barriers to an upset. A national Republican wave or unusual primary dynamics could theoretically narrow margins, though historical voting patterns and fundraising indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$34,050 Объем
$34,050 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$34,050 Объем
$34,050 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$20,437 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$13,612 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lateefah Simon, the Democratic incumbent elected in 2024, faces a June 2, 2026 top-two primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in California's 12th congressional district, a heavily urban area in northern Alameda County with a longstanding D+39 partisan lean. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with its recent history under predecessors including Barbara Lee. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner reflects the absence of competitive Republican candidates and structural barriers to an upset. A national Republican wave or unusual primary dynamics could theoretically narrow margins, though historical voting patterns and fundraising indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$34,050Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lateefah Simon, the Democratic incumbent elected in 2024, faces a June 2, 2026 top-two primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in California's 12th congressional district, a heavily urban area in northern Alameda County with a longstanding D+39 partisan lean. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with its recent history under predecessors including Barbara Lee. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner reflects the absence of competitive Republican candidates and structural barriers to an upset. A national Republican wave or unusual primary dynamics could theoretically narrow margins, though historical voting patterns and fundraising indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$34,050Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lateefah Simon, the Democratic incumbent elected in 2024, faces a June 2, 2026 top-two primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in California's 12th congressional district, a heavily urban area in northern Alameda County with a longstanding D+39 partisan lean. All major forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with its recent history under predecessors including Barbara Lee. Trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner reflects the absence of competitive Republican candidates and structural barriers to an upset. A national Republican wave or unusual primary dynamics could theoretically narrow margins, though historical voting patterns and fundraising indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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