Mike Derry leads as the United Conservative Party nominee in the September 14, 2026, Calgary-Shaw by-election, following the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz. The riding returned UCP support above 56 percent in 2023, and Derry secured the nomination in late June after defeating a sitting Calgary city councillor. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph round out the field, yet face structural headwinds in a district with consistent conservative voting patterns. Premier Danielle Smith has publicly backed Derry, framing the contest around resource-sector priorities. Market pricing reflects this baseline advantage while assigning lower shares to challengers, consistent with historical incumbent-party retention rates in Alberta by-elections.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМайк Дерри 77%
Джон Роггевин 41.9%
Кайл Джозеф 14.4%
Кайл Кэмпбелл 0
Майк Дерри
77%
Джон Роггевин
42%
Кайл Джозеф
14%
Кайл Кэмпбелл
43%
Майк Дерри 77%
Джон Роггевин 41.9%
Кайл Джозеф 14.4%
Кайл Кэмпбелл 0
Майк Дерри
77%
Джон Роггевин
42%
Кайл Джозеф
14%
Кайл Кэмпбелл
43%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry leads as the United Conservative Party nominee in the September 14, 2026, Calgary-Shaw by-election, following the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz. The riding returned UCP support above 56 percent in 2023, and Derry secured the nomination in late June after defeating a sitting Calgary city councillor. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, Liberal leader John Roggeveen, and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph round out the field, yet face structural headwinds in a district with consistent conservative voting patterns. Premier Danielle Smith has publicly backed Derry, framing the contest around resource-sector priorities. Market pricing reflects this baseline advantage while assigning lower shares to challengers, consistent with historical incumbent-party retention rates in Alberta by-elections.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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