**California's Proposition 39, a Republican-backed initiative requiring government-issued ID for in-person voting and the last four digits of an ID for mail ballots plus citizenship verification on rolls, faces significant headwinds ahead of the November 3, 2026 ballot.** In a state with a strong Democratic majority and heavy reliance on mail voting, recent August polling showed opposition at 51% against 42% support, reversing earlier narrower leads. Court rulings upheld the attorney general's ballot language framing the measure as restricting voting access, while opponents have mobilized against estimated implementation costs in the tens to hundreds of millions annually. These factors, combined with the state's history of rejecting similar restrictions, underpin traders' 61.5% implied probability that the measure will fail.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРеферендум по удостоверению личности избирателя в Калифорнии проходит?
Референдум по удостоверению личности избирателя в Калифорнии проходит?
Да
37% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
37% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 нояб. 2026 г.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.**California's Proposition 39, a Republican-backed initiative requiring government-issued ID for in-person voting and the last four digits of an ID for mail ballots plus citizenship verification on rolls, faces significant headwinds ahead of the November 3, 2026 ballot.** In a state with a strong Democratic majority and heavy reliance on mail voting, recent August polling showed opposition at 51% against 42% support, reversing earlier narrower leads. Court rulings upheld the attorney general's ballot language framing the measure as restricting voting access, while opponents have mobilized against estimated implementation costs in the tens to hundreds of millions annually. These factors, combined with the state's history of rejecting similar restrictions, underpin traders' 61.5% implied probability that the measure will fail.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$9,123Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.**California's Proposition 39, a Republican-backed initiative requiring government-issued ID for in-person voting and the last four digits of an ID for mail ballots plus citizenship verification on rolls, faces significant headwinds ahead of the November 3, 2026 ballot.** In a state with a strong Democratic majority and heavy reliance on mail voting, recent August polling showed opposition at 51% against 42% support, reversing earlier narrower leads. Court rulings upheld the attorney general's ballot language framing the measure as restricting voting access, while opponents have mobilized against estimated implementation costs in the tens to hundreds of millions annually. These factors, combined with the state's history of rejecting similar restrictions, underpin traders' 61.5% implied probability that the measure will fail.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”.
If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.
Объем
$9,123Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**California's Proposition 39, a Republican-backed initiative requiring government-issued ID for in-person voting and the last four digits of an ID for mail ballots plus citizenship verification on rolls, faces significant headwinds ahead of the November 3, 2026 ballot.** In a state with a strong Democratic majority and heavy reliance on mail voting, recent August polling showed opposition at 51% against 42% support, reversing earlier narrower leads. Court rulings upheld the attorney general's ballot language framing the measure as restricting voting access, while opponents have mobilized against estimated implementation costs in the tens to hundreds of millions annually. These factors, combined with the state's history of rejecting similar restrictions, underpin traders' 61.5% implied probability that the measure will fail.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы