Elevated headline inflation, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year in April amid a sharp energy price surge tied to Middle East developments, remains the dominant factor anchoring the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025 and recent communications highlighting uncertainty around the inflation trajectory, traders see limited scope for a 25 basis point adjustment in either direction before clearer data emerges. The June 16-17 meeting and the subsequent May CPI release, due June 10, represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly shift this pause consensus, though any material softening in labor market conditions or faster core disinflation would be required to meaningfully alter the current odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 6.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.4%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,667,448 Объем
$8,667,448 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
1%
Без изменений
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 6.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.4%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,667,448 Объем
$8,667,448 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,142,067 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$901,496 Объем
1%
Без изменений
$1,250,965 Объем
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,925,829 Объем
6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,447,917 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated headline inflation, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year in April amid a sharp energy price surge tied to Middle East developments, remains the dominant factor anchoring the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025 and recent communications highlighting uncertainty around the inflation trajectory, traders see limited scope for a 25 basis point adjustment in either direction before clearer data emerges. The June 16-17 meeting and the subsequent May CPI release, due June 10, represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly shift this pause consensus, though any material softening in labor market conditions or faster core disinflation would be required to meaningfully alter the current odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$8,667,448Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated headline inflation, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year in April amid a sharp energy price surge tied to Middle East developments, remains the dominant factor anchoring the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025 and recent communications highlighting uncertainty around the inflation trajectory, traders see limited scope for a 25 basis point adjustment in either direction before clearer data emerges. The June 16-17 meeting and the subsequent May CPI release, due June 10, represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly shift this pause consensus, though any material softening in labor market conditions or faster core disinflation would be required to meaningfully alter the current odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$8,667,448Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated headline inflation, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year in April amid a sharp energy price surge tied to Middle East developments, remains the dominant factor anchoring the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the policy rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025 and recent communications highlighting uncertainty around the inflation trajectory, traders see limited scope for a 25 basis point adjustment in either direction before clearer data emerges. The June 16-17 meeting and the subsequent May CPI release, due June 10, represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly shift this pause consensus, though any material softening in labor market conditions or faster core disinflation would be required to meaningfully alter the current odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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