**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market continue to anchor trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.** Recent May CPI data showed a 0.5% monthly rise, pushing the annual rate above 4%, while core measures remain elevated amid energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Unemployment has held steady near 4.3% with steady payroll gains, reducing the case for near-term easing. Market pricing reflects this environment, with the 73.5% probability of no change far outpacing small move outcomes. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, unchanged since earlier 2026 meetings, is viewed by traders as appropriate given sticky price pressures and the absence of clear downside risks to growth. Upcoming June data releases and the June 16-17 FOMC decision—expected to maintain a data-dependent, restrictive stance—will provide further signals before September.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 74%
25 bps increase 12%
25 bps decrease 11.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.6%
$310,754 Объем
$310,754 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
11%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
12%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 12%
25 bps decrease 11.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.6%
$310,754 Объем
$310,754 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$54,709 Объем
3%
25 bps decrease
$63,643 Объем
11%
No change
$86,862 Объем
74%
25 bps increase
$59,987 Объем
12%
50+ bps increase
$47,893 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market continue to anchor trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.** Recent May CPI data showed a 0.5% monthly rise, pushing the annual rate above 4%, while core measures remain elevated amid energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Unemployment has held steady near 4.3% with steady payroll gains, reducing the case for near-term easing.
Market pricing reflects this environment, with the 73.5% probability of no change far outpacing small move outcomes. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, unchanged since earlier 2026 meetings, is viewed by traders as appropriate given sticky price pressures and the absence of clear downside risks to growth. Upcoming June data releases and the June 16-17 FOMC decision—expected to maintain a data-dependent, restrictive stance—will provide further signals before September.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$310,754Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market continue to anchor trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.** Recent May CPI data showed a 0.5% monthly rise, pushing the annual rate above 4%, while core measures remain elevated amid energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Unemployment has held steady near 4.3% with steady payroll gains, reducing the case for near-term easing.
Market pricing reflects this environment, with the 73.5% probability of no change far outpacing small move outcomes. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, unchanged since earlier 2026 meetings, is viewed by traders as appropriate given sticky price pressures and the absence of clear downside risks to growth. Upcoming June data releases and the June 16-17 FOMC decision—expected to maintain a data-dependent, restrictive stance—will provide further signals before September.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$310,754Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market continue to anchor trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.** Recent May CPI data showed a 0.5% monthly rise, pushing the annual rate above 4%, while core measures remain elevated amid energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions. Unemployment has held steady near 4.3% with steady payroll gains, reducing the case for near-term easing. Market pricing reflects this environment, with the 73.5% probability of no change far outpacing small move outcomes. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, unchanged since earlier 2026 meetings, is viewed by traders as appropriate given sticky price pressures and the absence of clear downside risks to growth. Upcoming June data releases and the June 16-17 FOMC decision—expected to maintain a data-dependent, restrictive stance—will provide further signals before September.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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