Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s dominant performance in the August 8 primary, securing over 91 percent of the vote, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Hawaii’s 2nd district. The seat’s consistent Democratic lean, built on its mix of suburban Oahu areas and outer islands, combined with Tokuda’s prior 66 percent general-election margin and substantial fundraising edge, drives the current market pricing. Republican nominee Brenton Awa faces structural headwinds in a district long resistant to GOP gains. While national political shifts, candidate health developments, or late scandals could narrow the gap before the November 3 election, historical voting patterns and early indicators leave limited room for an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHI-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
HI-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$63,525 Объем
$63,525 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
96%
Республиканская партия
6%
$63,525 Объем
$63,525 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$43,095 Объем
96%
Республиканская партия
$20,430 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s dominant performance in the August 8 primary, securing over 91 percent of the vote, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Hawaii’s 2nd district. The seat’s consistent Democratic lean, built on its mix of suburban Oahu areas and outer islands, combined with Tokuda’s prior 66 percent general-election margin and substantial fundraising edge, drives the current market pricing. Republican nominee Brenton Awa faces structural headwinds in a district long resistant to GOP gains. While national political shifts, candidate health developments, or late scandals could narrow the gap before the November 3 election, historical voting patterns and early indicators leave limited room for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Объем
$63,525Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s dominant performance in the August 8 primary, securing over 91 percent of the vote, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Hawaii’s 2nd district. The seat’s consistent Democratic lean, built on its mix of suburban Oahu areas and outer islands, combined with Tokuda’s prior 66 percent general-election margin and substantial fundraising edge, drives the current market pricing. Republican nominee Brenton Awa faces structural headwinds in a district long resistant to GOP gains. While national political shifts, candidate health developments, or late scandals could narrow the gap before the November 3 election, historical voting patterns and early indicators leave limited room for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$63,525Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s dominant performance in the August 8 primary, securing over 91 percent of the vote, has reinforced trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Hawaii’s 2nd district. The seat’s consistent Democratic lean, built on its mix of suburban Oahu areas and outer islands, combined with Tokuda’s prior 66 percent general-election margin and substantial fundraising edge, drives the current market pricing. Republican nominee Brenton Awa faces structural headwinds in a district long resistant to GOP gains. While national political shifts, candidate health developments, or late scandals could narrow the gap before the November 3 election, historical voting patterns and early indicators leave limited room for an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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