Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strong Democratic hold heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee favored at roughly 94.5% in trader consensus. Incumbent Ed Case benefits from the district's D+13 partisan voting index, his consistent reelection margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, and name recognition across Oahu. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features challengers including state legislators Jarrett Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti, who have drawn support from progressive voters critical of Case's occasional bipartisan votes, yet early polling shows Case maintaining a plurality lead amid vote-splitting. Republican primary candidate Adriel Lam faces structural barriers in a district where GOP general-election performance has historically lagged. Only an unforeseen primary upset or late national swing could realistically alter the general-election outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHI-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
HI-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$27,886 Объем
$27,886 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
5%
$27,886 Объем
$27,886 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$14,477 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$13,408 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strong Democratic hold heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee favored at roughly 94.5% in trader consensus. Incumbent Ed Case benefits from the district's D+13 partisan voting index, his consistent reelection margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, and name recognition across Oahu. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features challengers including state legislators Jarrett Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti, who have drawn support from progressive voters critical of Case's occasional bipartisan votes, yet early polling shows Case maintaining a plurality lead amid vote-splitting. Republican primary candidate Adriel Lam faces structural barriers in a district where GOP general-election performance has historically lagged. Only an unforeseen primary upset or late national swing could realistically alter the general-election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Объем
$27,886Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strong Democratic hold heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee favored at roughly 94.5% in trader consensus. Incumbent Ed Case benefits from the district's D+13 partisan voting index, his consistent reelection margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, and name recognition across Oahu. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features challengers including state legislators Jarrett Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti, who have drawn support from progressive voters critical of Case's occasional bipartisan votes, yet early polling shows Case maintaining a plurality lead amid vote-splitting. Republican primary candidate Adriel Lam faces structural barriers in a district where GOP general-election performance has historically lagged. Only an unforeseen primary upset or late national swing could realistically alter the general-election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$27,886Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st Congressional District remains a strong Democratic hold heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee favored at roughly 94.5% in trader consensus. Incumbent Ed Case benefits from the district's D+13 partisan voting index, his consistent reelection margins exceeding 70% in recent cycles, and name recognition across Oahu. A crowded Democratic primary on August 8 features challengers including state legislators Jarrett Keohokalole and Della Au Belatti, who have drawn support from progressive voters critical of Case's occasional bipartisan votes, yet early polling shows Case maintaining a plurality lead amid vote-splitting. Republican primary candidate Adriel Lam faces structural barriers in a district where GOP general-election performance has historically lagged. Only an unforeseen primary upset or late national swing could realistically alter the general-election outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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